Japanese Government Predicts Solar Energy Is Cheaper Than Nuclear In 2030

Illustration of solar panels in Aikawa, Japan. (Wikimedia Commons/Σ64)

JAKARTA - Solar power will overtake nuclear power as the cheapest energy source for Japan by 2030, due to ballooning safety costs following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster, according to government estimates for the first time Monday, July 12.

Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) forecast at a panel of experts meeting that the cost of nuclear power generation would rise by about 10 percent from a previous estimate in 2015, while the cost of solar power would fall as it becomes more widespread due to decarbonization efforts.

METI has traditionally emphasized the low cost of generating electricity as an advantage of nuclear power. However, the government aims to make renewable energy the main energy source.

According to Kyodo News, the Land of the Sun is aiming to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, a goal that will be reflected in a revised basic energy plan this summer.

The estimated cost of a nuclear power plant, which reached at least 10.3 yen per kilowatt in 2015, has now risen by more than 1 yen to at least 11.5 yen, due to the implementation of measures required under the country's new nuclear safety rules.

In contrast, the cost of solar energy for commercial use is expected to fall from the 12.7-15.6 yen range as expected in 2015 to the 8-11.5 yen range. Meanwhile, solar energy for residential use is expected to fall from the 12.5-16.4 yen range to the 9.5-14.5 yen range, as the prices of panels and related equipment fall amid increasing adoption.

The minimum estimates for onshore wind power and LNG-fueled power generation are also lower than for nuclear power. Onshore wind power is expected to cost at least 9.5 yen, down from the previous estimate of 13.6 yen. Meanwhile, gas-fired power plants, whose carbon emissions are about half that of coal-fired power plants, are expected to fall from 13.4 yen to 10.5 yen.

Meanwhile, coal power is expected to rise from 12.9 yen to a range of 13.5-22.5 yen, as the cost of measures to curb carbon dioxide emissions rises.

The estimate is based on the assumption that the power generation facility will be built and operated on vacant land, excluding the cost of acquiring the land itself.

"The figures may change depending on how much renewable energy has been introduced in the future, fuel prices and facility utilization rates," according to METI.