Indonesian Political Parameter Survey: Defense Minister Prabowo's Electability Defeats Anies Baswedan

Minister of Defense Prabowo Subianto (Irfan Meidianto/VOI)

JAKARTA - The Indonesian Political Parameters Survey Institute said that the electability of the Minister of Defense (Menhan) Prabowo Subianto is still strong among figures who will run for presidential candidates in the upcoming 2024 presidential election.

"The electability data shows Prabowo Subianto to be an irreplaceable figure from military-based candidates to consistently lead the 2024 presidential candidate competition," said Executive Director of Indonesian Political Parameter, Adi Prayitno, in a written statement to reporters as quoted on Monday, February 22.

This survey uses a simple random sampling method with a margin of error of 2.9 and a confidence level of 95 percent. The number of respondents reached 1,200 with the telepolling method using a questionnaire which was conducted on February 3-8.

Adi explained that this survey was divided into two groups, namely the electability of presidential candidates with 10 and 15 names. Both the results favored the Gerindra Party Chairman.

On the electability of the 10 presidential candidates, Prabowo Subianto was in first place with a percentage of 23.1 percent. Furthermore, in second place there is the name of DKI Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan with electability of 15.2 percent and Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo 14.9 percent.

Then, West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil recorded electability of 6.8 percent; Minister of Social Affairs Tri Rismaharini 6.5 percent; and Chairman of the Democratic Party 6.3 percent. The rest, there are a number of figures whose electability is below 5 percent, namely Minister of Tourism and Creative Economy Sandiaga Uno, Vice President Jusuf Kalla 10 and 12, ulama Ustaz Abdul Somad, and former National Army Commander Gatot Nurmantyo.

Meanwhile, on the electability of 15 presidential candidates, Prabowo received a percentage of 22.1 percent. Followed by Anies Baswedan with a figure of 14.6 percent.

Ganjar Pranowo's electability at 13.9 percent; Ridwan Kamil 6.3 percent; Tri Rismaharini 5.8 percent, and Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY) 5.3 percent. Then Sandiaga Salahuddin Uno 4.1 percent and Jusuf Kalla 3.8 percent.

Next, Gatot Nurmantyo's electability was 3.4 percent; Ustaz Abdul Somad 2.9 percent; and the Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal, and Security Affairs (Menko Polhukam) Mahfud MD 2 percent.

Continued, Minister of State-Owned Enterprise Erick Thohir 1.8 percent; East Java Governor Khofifah Indar Parawansa 1 percent; the House of Representative Speaker Puan Maharani was 0.8 percent, and Presidential Chief of Staff Moeldoko was 0.2 percent.

Furthermore, this survey also found other facts that candidates such as Moeldoko and Gatot Nurmantyo who came from the National Army had a tough job if they wanted to compete. Adi assessed that only AHY was relatively stable even though his electability tended to be stagnant and scattered from other candidates.

Another finding is that Sandiaga Uno's electability has actually decreased. This is because the electability of the former Deputy Governor of DKI Jakarta, who was previously paired with Anies, has always been in the top 5.

"This is allegedly caused by a negative perception of Sandiaga Uno's entry into Jokowi's Working Cabinet," Adi said.

Tri Rismaharini's electability is said to have increased significantly compared to the previous survey. The former Mayor of Surabaya was able to move to rank 5. "The increased electability of Tri Rismaharini was due to increased media exposure since being appointed as Minister of Social Affairs," he concluded.