US Economy Begins To Loose, Rupiah Is Predicted To Weaken

US and Rupiah dollars (Photo: dock. Antara)

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Friday, November 1, 2024 is expected to weaken against the United States (US) dollar.

Quoting Bloomberg, the Rupiah exchange rate on Thursday, October 31, 2024, the rupiah exchange rate on the spot market closed up 0.04 percent at the level of Rp. 15,698 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed higher by 0.17 percent to a price level of Rp. 15,705 per US dollar.

Director of PT.Laba Forexindo Berjangka Ibrahim Assuaibi said the growth of US private payroll jumped in October, overcoming fears of temporary disruptions due to storms and strikes, according to the ADP National Manpower Report.

Meanwhile, separate data showed the US economy grew at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter, slightly lower than the expected 3 percent.

"The US indicators, which were diverse overnight, showed a loose US job market but confident consumers, provided little clarity on the prospects for the Federal Reserve interest rate, which allowed the US dollar to float lower with Treasury yields," he said in a statement quoted on Friday, November 1.

Ibrahim menjelaskan baru-baru ini, pembacaan ekonomi telah menunjukkan pasar kerja dan ekonomi yang tangguh, mendorong para pedagang untuk mengurangi betut mereka pada cutang suku bunga.

The US dollar and bond returns have also been backed in recent days by rising speculation in the market and on several betting platforms about winning the November 5 presidential election for Republican candidate Donald Trump whose tariff and immigration policies are considered inflation and those against Democrat Kamala Harris.

Meanwhile, from within the country, the turmoil about the economic growth in the Prabowo-Gibran era was 8 percent, making polemics in the market. Because the IMF itself only sets a target for economic growth for the Prabowo-Gibran period at only 5.2 percent. Especially now that geopolitical tension is so dominant and the economic slowdown in China.

However, the government itself is optimistic that this figure will make the red and white cabinet work hard to achieve this target and it is not impossible to achieve. If we look back, Indonesia has achieved economic growth at 8 percent. in 1995 even Indonesia's economic growth reached 8.2 percent.

In order to achieve economic growth at the level of 8 percent of Indonesia can learn from various achievements and situations of world economic development. which today has not returned to normal, there is still an impact of long Covid-19. World economic growth has not returned to the era before Covid-19 today is still an average of 3 percent.

For this reason, the government will explore the potential of new economic sources, such as technological adaptation and innovation so that Indonesia can escape the middle income trap. And can achieve income above middle income.

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but close lower in trading Friday, November 1, 2024, in the price range of IDR 15,680 - IDR 15,760 per US dollar.