Let's Enjoy The Warm Temperature Of Indonesian Politics

President Jokowi, Governor of Central Java Ganjar Pranowo, and Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto inspected the main harvest in Kebumen, Central Java. (Instagram Ganjar Pranowo)

JAKARTA Political conditions ahead of the 2024 General Election are still dynamic. The possibility of changes in the coalition map is very large. PDIP, PPP, Hanura, and PSI currently seem determined to carry Ganjar Pranowo as presidential candidates.

Likewise with NasDem, PKS, and the Democratic Party that brought Anies Baswedan. Meanwhile, Gerindra and PKB who are members of the Greater Indonesia Awakening Coalition (KKIR) are still 'going around' to carry out political lobbying.

KKIR, said PKB Chairman Muhaimin Iskandar, almost certainly carries the General Chair of the Gerindra Party Prabowo Subianto as a presidential candidate. Even so, KKIR will continue to try to attract other parties to join.

The more parties who want to join will certainly get better. In particular, the parties that were previously in the United Indonesia Coalition (KIB).

"Pak Prabowo and I agree. It would be nice if parties that do not yet have a coalition can be invited. Intensive now with Golkar and PAN," said Cak Imin, Muhaimin Iskandar's nickname on the YouTube account of Akbar Faizal Uncensored which aired on May 22, 2023.

Golkar is likely to get closer to the KKIR. So far, said Cak Imin, there has been an intensive discussion between Prabowo and the General Chair of the Golkar Party, Airlangga Hartarto.

However, whether Golkar can get a vice presidential candidate, Cak Imin emphasized that the conversation has not yet led to it.

Pak Prabowo replied, to be my vice presidential candidate, the determinant was PKB. Then, Airlangga discussed with me. I said that the option may appear, after all, our decision is still long. But just go in first, later when it's in the KKIR together, we sit at one table, which one is the most likely, "said Cak Imin.

"I didn't say the price was fixed, who knows Airlangga's survey is better than me or my survey is better than Airlangga, those are options that we still see until August," Cak Imin continued.

As for PAN, the discussion has also been well established, especially the conversation between Prabowo and PAN Chairman Zulkifli Hasan. However, Cak Imin has not yet captured PAN's commitment to which direction.

To be sure, the choice is only to Prabowo or to Ganjar. It is impossible to join the Change Coalition to support Anies because PAN is known to carry Erick Thohir as his vice presidential candidate.

"This is the result of my chat with Zul. Zul said it was impossible for me to be with PKS, something like that. How many times have I been with PKS, the share is the same, so just think it's impossible," said Cak Imin.

The electability of Prabowo and Ganjar in a number of survey institutions always occupies the top position. In fact, if later it is true that there are three pairs of presidential and vice presidential candidates, Prabowo and Ganjar will enter the next round.

Referring to the results of the latest survey of the Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI) Denny JA, Prabowo is superior in the vote of Muslim voters. Of the 90 percent of respondents, 34.6 percent of the people chose Prabowo, then 31.2 percent chose Ganjar, and 21.6 percent chose Anies.

However, for non-Muslim voters, Ganjar is ahead by 42.8 percent. Meanwhile, Prabowo 21.4 percent and Anies only 6.2 percent.

The survey also showed that the majority of rural communities preferred Prabowo over Ganjar and Anies. Prabowo got 34.8 percent, Ganjar 31.2 percent, and Anies 18.3 percent.

Meanwhile, urban communities tend to choose Ganjar with 33.6 percent, Prabowo with 31 percent, and Anies with 27.9 percent.

As for the gender segment, male voters tend to vote for Prabowo and female voters tend to vote for Ganjar.

This survey took place on May 3-14, 2023. A total of 1,200 respondents were involved with a random surveillance method with data collection techniques through interviews. "Margin of error reached 2.9 percent," said LSI researcher Denny JA, Adjie Alfaraby in a virtual press conference on May 19, 2023.

The results of the Charta Politica survey on May 2-7, 2023, are also not much different. Put Ganjar and Prabowo at the top as presidential candidates with the highest electability compared to the other 10 names.

"Ganjar Pranowo leads with a figure of 34.6 percent. Number 2 is Pak Prabowo with 28.1 percent. Number 3 is Mas Anies with 21.4 percent," said Charta Politica Executive Director Yunarto Wijaya in a virtual press conference Monday (15/5/2023).

According to him, Ganjar and Prabowo are figures who can continue the struggle of President Jokowi. Because it is undeniable, the increasing public trust in the results of Jokowi's performance during his time as President of the Republic of Indonesia made his choice a determinant.

Ganjar is currently considered to have a leadership character that is not much different from Jokowi. However, Prabowo's narratives, which are similar to Jokowi's, like the desire to make a sovereign Indonesia, can also be an important point. Moreover, Prabowo and Jokowi's relationship now seems intimate.

Cak Imin also admitted that Jokowi did have a strong desire so that all the programs and legacy he had built could be continued. So, don't be surprised if the president's support tends to be subjective.

"It's natural to reflect on a person who wants his legancy to be brought by any leadership, any era, then there is a subjectivity of support. One day to Ganjar, one day to Prabowo, it's just dynamic. A president has a subjectivity, that's a political right," he added.

Other indicators that make Prabowo and Ganjar superior are also seen from the electability of the supporting party. The results of the latest survey by Litbang Kompas on April 29-10 May 2023 show that Gerindra and PDIP's electability is getting stronger. In fact, it is far apart from other parties.

PDIP has electability of 23.3 percent, up 0.4 percent compared to the previous survey in January 2023. Likewise, Gerindra rose from 14.3 percent in January 2023 to 18.6 percent in May 2023.

In total, of the nine parties that received seats in the DPR, four parties received an increase in electability, namely PDIP, Gerindra, PAN, and PPP. Meanwhile, the electability of the other five parties, namely Golkar, Democrats, Nasdem, PKB, and PKS, tends to decline.

Even so, the results are still dynamic, Litbang Kompas also believes, "Things such as the composition of the coalition of political parties, the pairs of presidential candidates, and the direction of Jokowi's support are suspected of having contributed to the electability of political parties."