Speculation Of KIB, KKIR, And PDIP Great Coalition

President Jokowi and five political party chairmen in the Ramadan gathering held by PAN in South Jakarta on April 2, 2023, became the beginning of the formation of a grand coalition that was revealed. (Doc. Ministry of Trade)

The discourse on forming a grand coalition between KIB (United Indonesia Coalition) consisting of Golkar, PAN, and PPP, KKIR (Greater Indonesia Awakening Coalition consisting of Gerindra and PKB), and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) is still a hot topic in society. Related to this, there has been much speculation about the possibility of the grand coalition winning in the 2024 presidential election.

Although Golkar revealed that KIB-KKIR would meet again to discuss leadership in the grand coalition, PPP expressed disbelief in the idea. The reason, according to PPP, is that each party still has its own agenda and political interests, making it difficult to make decisions that benefit all parties.

However, PDIP is increasingly open to the idea of ​​a grand coalition. According to them, the political burden will be lighter if it is shared. Puan Maharani, a PDIP elite, revealed that PDIP has no objection to joining KIB-KIR in a grand coalition. Meanwhile, Golkar respects PDIP which is still in its own position but also states that the door to a grand coalition remains open.

Speculation about the presidential candidate of the grand coalition is increasingly being heard. Various sources mentioned names such as Ganjar Pranowo, Prabowo Subianto, Airlangga Hartarto, and Puan Maharani as potential candidates. However, until now there has been no certainty about who the grand coalition will support. Gerindra itself is still insistent on nominating its general chairman, Prabowo Subianto. Likewise, Golkar still mentions Airlangga Hartarto as its presidential candidate. Meanwhile, the PDI-P has yet to mention an official name. The words of the General Chairperson, Megawati Soekarnoputri, who holds the mandate to determine the PDIP presidential candidate have not yet been issued.

Nonetheless, a number of politicians are optimistic that the grand coalition will have a great chance of winning the 2024 Presidential Election. This is evident from the positive response given by a number of parties to the grand coalition discourse. Even PAN, which initially refused to join KIB-KKIR, has now begun to imagine the possibility of winning the 2024 presidential election if this grand coalition is formed.

However, it must be remembered that forming a grand coalition is not an easy thing. It takes agreement and sacrifice from each party to achieve common goals. Therefore, despite being optimistic, it must be acknowledged that there are many challenges that need to be faced in the process of forming a grand coalition. Some of them are:

1. Ideological differences: Political parties have different political views. Therefore, reaching agreement on ideological terms can be difficult, especially if the parties wishing to form a coalition have significantly different views.
2. Party Interests: Each political party has their own political interests and agenda. At times, these parties may sacrifice their own interests for the sake of the common good, but in some cases, parties may be unwilling to compromise.
3. Roles in coalitions: When several parties unite to form a coalition, they must determine the role of each party in the coalition. This can be difficult when the parties seeking to form a coalition are of different sizes and strengths.
4. Political maneuvers: In the process of forming a coalition, political parties sometimes use political tactics, such as threatening to leave the coalition or drafting an unclear agreement. This could complicate the coalition-building process and lead to future instability.

And it must be remembered, President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) and PDIP General Chair Megawati Soekarnoputri are believed to still have a big role. The formation of a grand coalition is also very likely to depend on these two figures. Also who will become the presidential and vice presidential candidates, apart from the constraints described earlier. The issue of presidential and vice presidential candidates is perhaps the most crucial and tough issue. Were the leaders and officials at KIB, KKIR, and PDIP able to reach an agreement?

Nonetheless, if political parties can overcome these challenges and reach mutually beneficial agreements, it is certain that grand coalitions can become very powerful political forces.