The Gaza Health Crisis Could Cause 8,000 People to Die in the Next Six Months Even if the War Has Ended

Palestinian refugee camps in southern Gaza. (UNRWA/Hussein Owda)

JAKARTA - Independent researchers in the United States and Britain revealed in a report that the health crisis in Gaza has the potential to cause more than 8,000 people to die over the next six months, even though Hamas and Israel's war in the Palestinian enclave ends.

The war that broke out last October left hospitals in Gaza devastated by fighting, leaving more than 85 percent of the 2.3 million population homeless, while cases of diseases such as diarrhea and malnutrition increased in overcrowded shelters.

These figures come from reports by academics at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and the Johns Hopkins Center for Humanitarian Health in the United States, quoted by Reuters, February 21.

It is part of a broader projection of the number of excess deaths that may be caused by the conflict in Gaza over the next six months. The report published on Monday did not include Israel, as its health system is still intact.

If fighting continues or escalates, traumatic injuries will account for most deaths in Gaza, researchers project. However, deaths from malnutrition, infectious diseases such as cholera, and lack of access to care for conditions such as diabetes will also kill thousands.

In a worst-case scenario, when fighting escalates and there is a significant disease outbreak, about 85,570 people may die by early August, with 68,650 deaths linked to traumatic injuries, the report said.

Even with a ceasefire, around 11,580 people could still die in the same period if disease outbreaks add to the challenge of rebuilding Gaza's sanitation and health systems.

About 3,250 of these deaths were due to long-term complications from traumatic injuries and 8,330 were due to other causes, according to the report.

The Ministry of Health in Gaza announced on Tuesday that the death toll of Palestinians in the territory had reached 29,195 and 69,170 others were injured.

The excess death toll estimates include both civilians and combatants, with researchers warning the unpredictable nature of war and disease outbreaks means such estimates have wide ranges. Counting the death toll in Gaza is a challenge, and the aim is to provide further clarity, the British Government-funded report said.