SPIN Survey: Prabowo's Electability Is Increasingly Moncer With Gibran

Prabowo Subianto with Gibran Rakabuming Raka/DOK Instagram @prabowo

JAKARTA - The survey institute from SPIN (Survey and Polling Indonesia) released the results of the presidential-cawapres electability survey in the 2024 presidential election.

The survey showed the electability of Prabowo Subianto's presidential candidate has increased compared to October. In that month, Prabowo's electability reached 39.9 percent and rose to 40.3 percent in November.

In second place is Ganjar Pranowo with declining electability. In October, Ganjar's electability reached 31.1 percent, while November fell to 25.7 percent.

In third place is Anies Baswedan whose electability tends to increase. In October, Anies' electability was at 21.7 percent, while November increased to 22.5 percent.

In addition, the SPIN survey photographed the increase in the swing of voters to 11.5 percent in November from 7.3 percent in the previous month. This increase is thought to be related to Ganjar's vote niche which decreased with the voter position not yet making a choice.

"It is also suspected that some of Ganjar's voters voted for TT/TJ (undecided voters). This can be seen from the increase in the number of public TT/TJ by 4.2% from 7.3% to 11.5%," said SPIN Executive Director, Igor Dirgantara, Monday, November 27.

Influence Of Vice Presidential Candidates

In this survey, SPIN also simulated the influence of the vice presidential candidate in boosting the electability of the presidential candidate.

As a result, Gibran had a higher impact on boosting Prabowo's electability by 2.7 percent. Prabowo-Gibran's electability currently reaches 43 percent

Meanwhile, Mahfud MD increased Ganjar's electability by 0.4 percent. The electability of the Ganjar-Mahfud pair currently reaches 26.1 percent.

Then Muhaimin Iskandar contributed 0.2 percent electability for Anies Baswedan. AMIN has an electability of 22.7 percent.

" Gibran's contribution to the candidate pair is estimated at 2.7 percent, the largest when compared to the two other vice presidential pairs. Mahfud temporarily only contributed 0.4 percent and Muhaimin contributed 0.2 percent only to the electability of the candidate pair," said Igor.

In addition, Igor also warned that Jokowi's voters during the 2019 presidential election still tend to lead to Prabowo-Gibran. This is because the existence of Gibran in the Advanced Indonesia Coalition with Prabowo will be represented as Jokowi.

"The potential for migration of Jokowi's voters in 2019 from Ganjar-Mahfud will continue to occur in Prabowo-Gibran, especially from the pockets of PDIP votes which are the main base for Ganjar's support. Ganjar is no longer perceived as Jokowi because there is Gibran," he said.

Young People Choose

In addition, SPIN also captures the potential for electoral candidates from the younger generation to the elderly. This is important because the permanent voter list (DPT) for the 2024 General Election will be dominated by young people, namely Gerenasi Z and Generation Y (millennials).

Gen Z (1995-2010) chose Prabowo Subianto and Gibran with a score of 48.4 percent.

Untuk Ganjar-Mahfud sebesar 21.1 persen. Anies-Cak Imin hanya 20,0 persen. Namun ada swing voters mencapai 10,5 persen di kalangan pemilih Gen Z di Pilpres 2024.

Then Gen Y or Millennials (1977-1994), the highest electability is still achieved by candidate pair number 2 Prabowo-Gibran with 48.5 percent of the votes.

Meanwhile, Ganjar-Mahfud is 20.8 percent. However, Anies-Muhaimin outperformed candidate pair number 3 with a percentage of 24.9. However, there are 5.7 percent of voters who have not made their choice.

For Gen X (1965-1976), Prabowo-Gibran's election was still superior at 40.7 percent. Meanwhile, Ganjar-Mahfud and Anies- Cak Imin got the same score of 24.2 percent. However, there is 10.9 percent of voters in Gen X who have not answered their choice.

Then for Gen Baby Boomers (1946-1964), Ganjar-Mahfud's superiority is 38.5 percent. Meanwhile, Prabowo-Gibran is at 28.5 percent

Meanwhile, AMIN is at 12.2 percent. It was recorded that 20.8 percent had not answered.

Lastly for Gen Pre Baby Boomers (before 1945). Ganjar-Mahfud's election was superior at a percentage of 43.0 percent. Meanwhile, Prabowo-Gibran is at 25.0 percent.

Anies-Muhaimin reached 22.0 percent. But there are still those who swing Voters as much as 10.0 percent

"We know that 56.0 percent of the 2024 General Election DPT is filled by Gen Z and Gen Y, so it is very necessary for Prabowo to show his commitment to accommodate and collaborate with this generation by placing Gibran Rakabuming as his vice presidential candidate," he said.

Simulation 2 Paslon

SPIN also measures that the 2024 presidential election is faced with only 2 (two) candidate pairs. This simulation certainly aims to measure the potential for the second round in the 2024 presidential election.

First, if in the second round faced with Prabowo-Gibran vs Ganjar-Mahfud, then the chance of victory is in Prabowo-Gibran's hands of 57.1 percent. Meanwhile, Ganjar-Mahfud got 27.9 percent and undecided voters by 15 percent.

Second, if in the second decision there will be, where Pabowo-Gibran vs Anies-Imin. Then the potential victory is in Prabowo-Gibran's hands with 54.7 percent of the votes. The Anies-Cak Imin pair got 28.7 percent. While the undecidend voters are at 15.6 percent.

"When compared to the Prabowo-Gibran pair, it will be easier to win a fight when dealing with Ganjar-Mahfud than the Anies-Muhaimin pair," explained Igor.

The SPIN survey was conducted on November 1 - 10, 2023, involving 2,178 respondents spread across 38 provinces throughout Indonesia.

The methodology used is multistage random sampling with a margin of error (MoE) of 2.1 percent with a confidence level of 95 percent.