Rupiah Moves Lesu Overshadowed By The Treasury Of The US Dollar

US dollar (Photo: dock unsplash)

JAKARTA - The rupiah moved under pressure in trading Tuesday, February 6. The sentiment for the movement of the rupiah still comes from strengthening the US dollar and market concerns ahead of the 2024 presidential election.

Quoting Bloomberg, the rupiah spot closed down 0.24 percent to a price level of IDR 15,745 per US dollar in trading on Tuesday, February 6.

Head of Bank Permata economist Josua Pardede said the rupiah in trading on Tuesday 6 February 2024 is expected to move in the range of IDR 15,680-IDR 15,750 per US dollar.

According to him, this happened because of several sentiments such as the movement of the Rupiah exchange rate which was traded to weaken against US dollars since the opening of trading on Monday, February 5, following the strengthening of US dollars and the increase in UST yields in trading on Friday, February 2.

"It was supported by the solid release of US working data, namely Non-Farm Payroll, which recorded an increase of 353,000 and a stable US unemployment rate in the range of 3.7 percent in January 2024," he told VOI, Tuesday, February 6.

Josua conveyed that solid US economic data implies that the Fed has the potential to maintain its FFR at the level of 5.5 percent at the FOMC meeting in March.

In addition, the release of Chinese economic data such as PMI composite and PMI service in January 2024, which was recorded to be lower than the previous month's release figures.

Meanwhile, the weakening of China's economic data is a risk-sentiment for ASEAN countries, including Indonesia, which will be quite affected by the potential slowdown in China's economy by 2024.

Josua said the rupiah cut its weakening to US dollars to around Rp15,693 per dollar. Plus BPS data released growth data for the fourth quarter of 2023 and the overall year in 2023 which was recorded solidly in the range of 5 percent, indicating solid performance of the Indonesian economy amid the slowdown in the global economy.

According to Josua, market players will look forward to releasing US PMI service and composite data in January which is expected to be slightly higher than the previous month.

Currency Observer Lukman Leong said that the rupiah exchange rate is expected to be depressed against the US dollar in trading, Tuesday, February 6.

"Rupiah is expected to be under pressure apart from the strengthening US dollar, it is also under pressure by investor sentiment and concern ahead of the 2024 presidential election," he explained.

In addition, according to him, the results of the release of GDP on Monday, February 5 were quite good and supported a little rupiah movement. However, the pressure is mainly based on these two things.

According to Lukman, the rupiah will be traded in the price range of IDR 15,650 - IDR 15,800 per US dollar in trading Tuesday, February 6.