The JCI On Monday Is Predicted Tend To Stay In The Red Zone

Illustration. (Photo: Doc. Antara)

JAKARTA - The movement of the Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) is predicted to tend to be stuck in the red zone in today's trading, Monday, July 4 after closing down 117 points or 1.70 percent last weekend to 6.794.

The transportation and logistics, industrial, basic materials, financial, consumer cyclicals, technology, property & real estate, consumer non-cyclicals, infrastructure, and health sectors moved negatively and dominated the decline in the JCI.

Associate Director of Research and Investment Pilarmas Investindo Sekuritas Maximilianus Nico Demus said the second semester was opened with a surprise that Indonesia's inflation rose above Bank Indonesia's target range of 4 percent in June 2022 to 4.35 percent on an annual basis from the previous 3.55 percent.

The increase was contributed by monthly inflation which increased by 0.61 percent from the previous 0.4 percent. Not because of the seasonal momentum that increases consumption, but the rising food prices.

"Inflation that moves wildly will certainly have an impact on purchasing power pressure which affects consumption levels which in the end has the potential to suppress industrial activity to domestic macro conditions," he explained in a daily research.

Nico explained, year-to-date, stocks in the industrial sector have posted a return of 13.23 percent, compared to the JCI return of 3.23 percent. This shows that investment interest in the industrial sector is quite vibrant throughout the current year.

Meanwhile, based on technical analysis, his party sees that the JCI has the potential to weaken, limited to the range of 6.766–7.054.

"The potential for a rebound is starting to open, but everything will return to the market's perception of a recession," he explained.

Pilarmar Sekuritas also recommends that investors watch BBCA stocks with support and resistance targets at 7.075-7.500, UNVR shares at 4.750-4.920, and SMBR shares at 468-510.