The Constitutional Court's Decision To Change The Threshold On Candidacy Really Change The Constellation Of The 2024 Jakarta Regional Head Elections

Candidates for the Governor of DKI Jakarta Ridwan Kamil and the Candidate for Deputy Governor of DKI Jakarta Suswono during the Declaration of Cagub and Cawagub DKI Jakarta in Jakarta, Monday (19/8/2024). (ANTARA/Muhammad Adimaja/tom.)

The decision of the Constitutional Court (MK) that parties or coalitions of political parties participating in the election can nominate candidates for regional heads even though they do not have a DPRD seat to change the political constellation in several elections to the regions, one of which is Jakarta.

Shortly after the Ridwan Kamil-Suswono pair were promoted by 12 parties to run in the 2024 Jakarta Governor and Deputy Governor elections, the Constitutional Court's decision was quite shocking.

The Constitutional Court partially granted a lawsuit regarding the threshold for nomination of regional heads through decision Number 60/PUU-XXII/2023 on Tuesday, August 20, 2024.

The Constitutional Court has decided on the threshold for nomination of regional heads, which previously amounted to 25 percent of votes or 20 percent of political party seats or coalitions of political parties resulting from the DPRD Legislative Election. In its decision, the Constitutional Court decided that the nomination of the governor of DKI Jakarta only needed 7.5 percent of the votes in the previous legislative or legislative elections.

A political observer from the University of Indonesia, Cecep Hidayat, said that the Constitutional Court's decision really changed the constellation of the Jakarta Pilkada.

The election for the Governor of Jakarta is still the most discussed, as well as causing polemics. How not, as many as 12 political parties officially signed a support charter to carry Ridwan Kamil and Suswono.

They are the Gerindra Party, the Golkar Party, the Prosperous Justice Party, the NasDem Party, the National Awakening Party, the Indonesian Solidarity Party, the Democratic Party, the National Mandate Party, the Garuda Party, the Gelora Party, the Perindo Party, and the United Development Party.

A total of 12 parties carrying Ridwan Kamil-Suswono combined have a total of 91 seats out of 106 seats in the Jakarta DPRD. Meanwhile, the PDI-P, with 15 seats, chose not to join the Advanced Indonesia Coalition (KIM) Plus.

After the declaration, Anies Baswedan is said to no longer have the opportunity to run in the Jakarta Pilkada. He was left by the NasDem, PKS, and PKB parties who decided to join KIM to support the Ridwan-Suswono pair.

Meanwhile, Megawati Soekarnoputri's party could not nominate the candidate pair alone because it was hit by a minimum rule of 22 seats.

But this scenario has now changed completely after the Constitutional Court's decision changed the threshold for nominating regional heads.

In a conversation with VOI, a political observer from the University of Indonesia Cecep Hidayat said that with the Constitutional Court's decision, it could change the contestation of the Jakarta Pilkada.

"With this change, it means that Pikada Jakarta can at least apply if there is already 7.5 percent of the previous legislative votes. The impact is that the PDI-P can propose its own candidate," Cecep told VOI.

Furthermore, Cecep said, if he came forward as Cagub Jakarta, Anies had a big chance even though he only carried one party.

He reflected on the results of the survey institute, one of which was the Saiful Mujani Research Center (SMRC), which conducted a survey with Jakarta residents on August 8-12, with a sample of 500 randomly selected respondents and a margin of error of around 4.5 percent.

The results showed that Anies would get 42.8 percent support, 8 percent superior if faced with Ridwan Kamil who got 34.9 percent.

Facing the youngest son of President Joko Widodo who is also the General Chair of PSI, Kaesang Pangarep, Anies received greater support, namely 46.5 percent. Meanwhile, Kaesang only received 15 percent.

Meanwhile, in another survey in June 2024 conducted by Indonesian Political Indicators, Anies was ranked at the top in open simulations or the top of mind survey, at 39.7 percent, while Ahok got 23.8 percent, and Ridwan Kamil 13.1 percent.

"Based on the results of survey institutions, such as SMRC, Anies leads the electability level. He can win to face Ahok, RK, and Kaesang," said Cecep.

"Therefore, the most rational choice for PDIP is to support Anies running for the Jakarta Pilkada, his deputy can be from PDIP cadres," he added.

Regarding the dynamics of the Cagub and Cawagub Jakarta pencalon processes in which the fat coalition that carries Ridwan Kamil-Suswono, Cecep Hidayat said this would affect the running of regional governments in the future.

According to Cecep, the elected governor, who is most likely won by the Ridwan-Suswono pair, will find it easier to produce a number of regional regulations. That way, local governments are stronger and more effective in making policies because they have majority support in the Provincial DPRD.

"But on the other hand, the strength of the elected governor's controller will be weak later because no one is watching," said CeceP.

"The rest are only PDIP, that's less than 20 percent. So this coalition is really the majority," he concluded.