After More Than 500 Days, When Will The Russia-Ukraine War End?

A boy stood near a destroyed house in the city of Dnipro, Ukraine after the Russian attack on June 24, 2023. (war.ukraine.ua/Serhii Korovainyi)

JAKARTA - The Ukraine-Russia War has passed its 500th day, but there is no sign of an end soon. This fact not only makes the world wary, but also worries both Ukraine, Russia, and the United States and their allies.

Ukraine is indeed in a position to take the initiative to attack, but their reverse offensive is not as smooth as the theory on paper. The formidable defense fort consists of suspended war trenches, mine series, and concrete blocks built by Russia, have hampered the forward movement of Ukrainian troops, including their winning units.

However, Russia's military force has also been cut, so it cannot launch offensive. The proof is that Russia can only launch long-range attacks using missiles and drones, to destroy Ukraine's command center and at the same time terrorize residents, so that the Ukrainian government is depressed to end the resistance.

Currently, the Russian army in general is only trying to contain the Ukrainian troops. On the other hand, Ukrainian soldiers can only move slowly, meter by meter. This frustrated Ukraine's war planners, including their military commander, General Valerii Zaluzhny, who regretted the late entry of Western military aid into the country.

This situation, as expressed by the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, has made the initial stages of Ukraine's reverse offensive take a long time and very bloody.

A discourse later emerged for the United States to send a bulk bomb to Ukraine, in order to destroy mines, anti-tank barricades, and Russia's frontline defense ditches. The bulk bombs were banned by 100 countries, but not by the United States, Ukraine, and Russia. Ukraine and Russia, even using this type of bomb in the war that has entered its second year.

The discourse of using a bulk bomb is a form of impatientness for the parties involved in this war. Russia itself threatens to use nuclear weapons so that this war ends soon, but Putin rules out that option, unless Russia is threatened with destruction.

In Russia alone, the hamiltonian pushed for Wagner Group's mercenaries led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, to launch an uprising to overthrow military officials who he said made Ukraine's war protracted.

Although Prigozhin did not target Russian President Vladimir Putin, the uprising reinforces the view that a protracted war poses internal divisions.

In such a scenario, Putin is not the only one threatened, because the West is also worried about facing Russia post-Putin which could be more brutal than it is today. A number of international political experts instead think the West doesn't really want to mess up Russia because if the country that owns the world's most nuclear weapons experiences anarchy, global security will be threatened.

In this context, there is a paradox in the Ukraine war that the largest sponsors of the Ukraine war, namely the US and Russia, are both maintaining relations in all dimensions.

The US has not closed its embassy in Moscow. Russia also did not close its embassy in Washington. The intelligence services of the two countries also continue to share information, in order to prevent conflicts from crossing borders that could trigger open conflict between them.

On the other hand, the dead end situation on the battlefield could force the disputed parties back to the negotiating table. The sound of calls for peace itself has become even louder lately. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko suddenly offered to be the mediator of the negotiations.

Meanwhile, according to an NBC report, a number of former US security advisers secretly met with Russian delegation led by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to discuss the possibility of holding peace negotiations. Lavrov did not rule out negotiations, let alone war realities increasingly difficult to manage by Russia.

But even if President Vladimir Putin chooses the negotiating table, then it's not because he's worried that his troops will lose to Ukraine. He may be much more worried if the war doesn't end soon, then more Russian soldiers will become victims. If this happens, the mothers of the Russian soldiers will loudly urge the war to stop.

Such circumstances occurred in the late 1980s when the Soviet Union was forced to halt its adventures in Afghanistan, after the mothers of Soviet soldiers who died on the battlefield urged the government to stop the war.

In the context of Ukraine's war, Putin prefers to place Wagner Group particle soldiers and Chechen militias on the bloodiest battlefields, including Bakhmut and Mariupol. He tries to prevent heavy casualties from regular Russian soldiers.

More than that, Russia is not the same as Russia in the Second World War era. The Russian population of this era was in the "post-heroic" era, as is common in low-born countries.

In this era, heroism is as important as saving human lives. People are sensitive to the loss of human lives, especially if the number is tens of thousands.

Perhaps, for that reason Putin also refused to mobilize Russia's total military, by simply partial mobilization. So eager to ward off the fear of residents about the death toll in large numbers, Putin did not want to call Russia's adventures in Ukraine a "war", but rather a "special military operation" that connotes softer than a "war".

Now, when everything seems to be a dead end, negotiations are an option. The problem is, that option will also be complicated for disputed parties.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stressed that peace negotiations should not pawn any Ukrainian territory, including Crimea. However, Zelensky knows for sure Russia will not back down from its stance.

On the other hand, Russia knows for sure it is adamant with its attitude, just as encouraging Ukraine to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) faster. If that happens, then Russia's direct border with NATO will lengthen.

Before Russia invaded Ukraine, only Estonia and Latvia became NATO areas directly adjacent to Russia, apart from Kaliningrad flanked by Poland and Lithuania.

Kaliningrad is a separate Russian territory pocket from Russia's mainland, such as the Oecusse-Ambeno district in Timor Leste, which is flanked by East Nusa Tenggara in its western, eastern, and southern parts.

Now, the Ukraine war has extended Russia's direct border with NATO, after Finland entered this defense block. I can't imagine if Ukraine also entered NATO. Only Belarus and Georgia are the buffer countries left for Russia. That too if Georgia destroys its desire to join NATO.

Such scenarios could actually accelerate the realization of peace negotiations, although Russia and Ukraine would be forced to provide major concessions.

It's nothing, in order to save mankind and glorify peace again.