Between Foreign Interests In The 2024 Presidential Election And China's Sea Conflict That Has Not Been Completed

Photo Illustration By Anndry Winarko (VOI)

JAKARTA Allegations of intervention or interference from other countries in every implementation of the Presidential Election (Pilpres) including in 2024 are always spreading. This is because Indonesia's very strategic position has made other countries, especially superpowers, have an interest in future government policies.

One of the points that is considered quite important in the 3rd presidential candidate debate, Sunday, January 7, 2024, is the view of the three presidential candidates related to the South China Sea conflict. The conflict that has not ended is indeed in the world's spotlight because apart from involving ASEAN countries, it has also dragged two superpowers, the United States and China.

Regarding the South China Sea conflict, presidential candidate number 3 Ganjar Pranowo emphasized the need to evaluate previous steps that have not succeeded in resolving conflicts, such as the DOC (Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea) already with the COC (code of conduct) which has been going on for more than 20 years without a clear settlement.

"So our proposal is very clear and clear. What is it? Temporary agreement? Why should we encourage this provisional agreement and we take the initiative so that we can prevent something we don't want," he said.

Ganjar also highlighted that the modernization of equipment in China, which is scheduled to be completed by 2027, will have major implications. In the context of the One China policy, Ganjar estimates that the whole world will recognize China's important role.

With China's role getting stronger, there may be potential conflicts with other countries. Although the possibility of the South China Sea conflict not reaching Indonesia, Ganjar is aware of the impact that Indonesia may have on various aspects.

"So these are important points that we must encourage and we will be able to bring the position of this initiative to make a temporary agreement to avoid higher potentials. We will reduce (The South China Sea Conflict) in this way," he explained.

Presidential Candidate number 1, Anies Baswedan, actually emphasized ASEAN's important role in resolving the issue. He underlined that Indonesia, as the largest country and founder of ASEAN, must be the dominant leader in the ASEAN framework.

"Because of this extraordinary force, we face it as a region, not just Indonesia dealing with other countries, but one region and Indonesia, the ASEAN leader, the keyword, in my opinion," said Anies.

Presidential candidate number 2, Prabowo Subianto assessed that a strong defense in facing the challenges of the South China Sea is the most important thing. He stressed the need to have strong defense forces, including platforms for patrols and satellites.

"So the state of the LCS, I underline that we need a strong defense force, we need a platform for patrols we need satellites, we need a lot. And for that we have to build defense," he said.

There Is No Solution For The South China Sea Conflict

Through a written statement, Monday, January 8, Unpad International Relations Science lecturer Teuku Rezasyah assessed that the solutions offered by the three presidential candidates related to the South China Sea conflict were less deep and less comprehensive.

"What kind of temporary agreement does Ganjar offer? Does it increase the level of military cooperation within ASEAN or temporarily allow new cooperation with outside ASEAN? This must be clear," he said.

According to Rezasyah, the solution offered by Anies also did not explain further how the Southeast Asian block could strengthen its defense cooperation. ASEAN currently has a number of defense forums that can be a forum to increase the cooperation.

The forums, such as the ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting (ADMM) and the meeting of defense chiefs of defense staff of ASEAN member countries, have discussed various defense issues, including maritime security.

"Then, Pak Prabowo about strengthening the TNI must be approved by the parliament. Of course there must be an analysis of needs," added Rezasyah.

Military, security and intelligence observer Connie Rahakundini Bakrie revealed that the field of conflict around Indonesia such as the South China Sea has the potential to be an entry point for foreign interference or intervention in the country, including the 2024 presidential election.

He stated that Indonesia's very central and strategic position made the upcoming government policy an attractive attraction between the west and east camps.

"For a long time, foreign interference in Indonesia has actually existed. What Soekarno experienced earlier was then addressed with the Non-Aligned Movement. Currently, there is an issue of the South China Sea which is close to Indonesia, not to mention the impact of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine," he added.

According to Connie, the involvement of the US and China in the South China Sea conflict has now shifted to Indonesia. Instead, she is worried that the conflict between the two superpowers, both the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, is a temporary issue, and the real target is Papua.

Therefore, he hopes that in the future the Indonesian government can be wiser in responding to tensions between the United States and China. Connie gave an example that in 2022 the US had provoked China by letting Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan which is very dangerous for the South China Sea and Southeast Asia.

"If China was provoked in the past, it would be an excuse to increase the consolidation of AUKUS being carried out in this region. So a new military alliance between America, Australia and Britain will have a reason to enter the South China Sea, such as NATO entering Ukraine," he said.

Connie reminded, if the US is able to do that in Taiwan, then it is possible that they can do the same thing by supporting Papua to escape from Indonesia. Like in Taiwan, without any escalation, the US intervenes in letting Pelosi enter Taiwan. This can also be done in Papua Remember, several military alliances have been prepared by the US in our area. There is AUKUS, there is THE QUAD and others," she added.

Beware Of Foreign Interventions In The Presidential Election

Professor of UI International Law, Hikmahanto Juwana also assessed that there is the potential for foreign interference that could have a crucial impact in the 2024 presidential election. Therefore, he asked all parties to be aware of foreign intervention in the 2024 presidential election.

"Often foreign hands play either unconstitutionally or constitutionally. It must be rich like that, we can't deny it," he said.

The Panelist Coordinator of the 3rd Presidential Candidate Debate said that some countries sometimes want to dictate who should be the leader in other countries and that action is closely related to intelligence games. "For example, in the United States there is a suspicion that Russia is behind this," he added.Hikmahanto also gave another example, namely the candidate for leader in neighboring countries who received campaign funds. The foreign hand hopes that the elected leader will be softer in his interests even though it is controversial.

"We know that in Indonesia Bung Karno was replaced by Mr. Harto. We say the process is in Indonesia, but from documents that can be opened there is a role of the US through the CIA. Therefore, let's be aware of foreign hands interfering so that elected leaders really fight for the interests of the Indonesian people," he said.

The existence of foreign intervention or interference ahead of the presidential election in Indonesia was also revealed by former PDI-P politician Zulpan Lindan who shared his experience ahead of the 2004 presidential election. He said that in 2003 when he was at Megawati's residence, he and the late. Taufik Kiemas was approached by Megawati who came out of the room.

Megawati, continued Zulpan, revealed that she had just received a call from the then US President, George W Bush. According to Megawati, Bush asked her to issue an official statement if Indonesia supports the US military attack on Iraq. Megawati immediately rejected the request on the grounds that she had to consult with the DPR.

Mrs. Mega said after refusing, Bush immediately closed her phone. After Mrs. Mega entered the room again, Mr. Taufik Kiemas told me that if we don't have to think about Megawati for two terms because it will definitely be finished in 2004. Maybe Mr. Taufik feels that there must be intelligence operations from a large country to thwart Megawati from becoming president in 2004 for refusing to accommodate their wishes," Zulpan explained.

He stated, ahead of the 2024 presidential election, big countries must have monitored the existing presidential candidates and have determined who they feel comfortable with. He gave an example, countries like the United States certainly want to feel comfortable with the upcoming government, especially about conflicts in the South China Sea.

"In the issue of the South China Sea, we continue to be invited, first we are neutral and then led to tend to side. Maybe with the joint military exercises, we can be considered no longer neutral but tend to side with the US," Zulpan concluded.