Electability Soars, Poltracking Predicts Khofifah-Emil To Win The 2024 East Java Gubernatorial Election

The candidate pair for governor-deputy governor of East Java, Khofifah Indar Parawansa-Emil Elestianto Dardak. (Ist)

JAKARTA - Poltracking Indonesia predicts that the candidate pairs Khofifah Indar Parawansa and Emil Elestianto Dardak will win the 2024 East Java (East Java) gubernatorial election (Pilgub).

The couple's electability, based on the latest survey by Poltracking Indonesia, shot up with 68.4 percent, leaving its competitors far away.

"We predict that the Khofifah-Emil pair will win the 2024 East Java gubernatorial election with a stable electability range of 66.2 to 70.6 percent," said the Executive Director of Poltracking Indonesia, Hanta Yuda in an online presentation of the survey results, Thursday, November 21.

The pair Tri Rismaharini-Zahrul Azhar or Gus Hans are in second place with 24.2 percent electability. Meanwhile, Luluk Nur Hamidah-Lukmanul Khakim's partner only pocketed 3.8 percent, far from the two main competitors.

In the single simulation, Khofifah also won a landslide far above the rivals of the candidate for the Governor of East Java. Khofifah's electability was 67.3 percent, and Tri Rismaharini followed 22.2 percent, in third position Luluk Nur Hamidah with 3.0 percent.

Then, in the single simulation of the candidate for Deputy Governor of East Java, Emil Elestianto Dardak was also in the highest position with an electability of 66.5 percent, followed by Zahrul Azhar Asumta Gus Hans 17.9 percent, and in a distended position Lukmanul Khakim 3.7 percent.

The high level of voter participation is one of the important factors in survey stability. The estimated participation rate of 70 to 80 percent reflects the potential realization of survey results in the upcoming elections.

"Stable voter participation makes this prediction have a high level of accuracy. The Khofifah-Emil pair seems difficult to move until now," he continued.

Furthermore, Hanta assessed that the political situation ahead of the 2024 East Java gubernatorial election was relatively conducive. The lack of extreme political dynamics is a factor supporting the dominance of this incumbent couple.

"So far there has been no significant political operation or extraordinary dynamics that can change the direction of people's choice," he said.

The Indonesian Poltracking East Java Pilgub survey on November 13-19 2024, used a multistage random sampling method with 2,000 respondents and a margin of error +/-2.2 percent at a 95 percent confidence level. The survey cluster reaches 38 districts/cities in East Java Province proportionally based on data on the number of the 2024 Fixed Voters List (DPT), while the stratification of this survey is the proportion of voter gender.

The leadership of Khofifah Indar Parawansa has succeeded in making many achievements as governor in East Java. Together with Emil Dardak, an innovative young leader, both of them have built a solid foundation for East Java.

With a positive track record and policies that are felt by the community, this couple continues to get great support. Khofifah-Emil is not only known as a symbol of stability, but also hopes for sustainable development in East Java.