The Electability Of Rudy Mas'ud-Seno Aji Wins In The Latest Survey Of The East Kalimantan Regional Head Elections

Illustration of the 2024 Simultaneous Pilkada (ANTARA)

JAKARTA - The Indonesian Election Study Institute (LKPI) issued the latest survey results related to the electability and popularity of two pairs of candidates for governor and deputy governor in East Kalimantan (Kaltim) ahead of the 2024 Pilkada. As a result, candidate pair number 02, Rudy Mas'ud-Seno Aji won the East Kalimantan gubernatorial election if the Pilkada was held today.

LKPI Executive Director, Togu Lubis explained that Rudy Mas'ud-Seno Aji had the highest percentage in the Top of Mind aspect, which was 53.1 percent. Meanwhile, the incumbent pair Isran Noor-Hadi Mulyadi trailed by a percentage of 30.1 percent. While 16.8 percent did not answer.

"Rudy Mas'ud-Seno Aji is the most called the desired couple to become the Governor and Deputy Governor of East Kalimantan when respondents are asked openly regarding the choice if the regional elections are held today," said Togu in his statement, Thursday, November 7.

Then, when the candidate pair's second electability level was tested using a questionnaire and assisted by a list of names and dimmy ballots with pictures and a second candidate pair number, the result was that the Rudy Mas'ud-Seno Aji pair got a percentage of 62.1 percent.

"Meanwhile, the Isran Noor-Hadi Mulyadi pair received a percentage of 33.2 percent and did not provide a choice of 4.7 percent," explained Togu.

The survey also shows the level of public trust in the two candidate pairs in three classes. Covering the 0-49 scale indicates distrust, 50-59 signifies trust and 60-100 means a lot of trust.

As a result, Togu explained, the Rudy Mas'ud-Seno Aji pair with a public confidence level reached an average score of 89.7 points. Meanwhile, the level of public trust in the Isran Noor-Hadi Mulyadi pair reached an average score of 53.6 points.

"The reason respondents chose the candidate pair for governor and deputy governor of choice for the people of East Kalimantan, the highest was because they believed and liked the candidate pair and cawagub with 37.7 percent points. Furthermore, because the work program was 34.6 percent, and it was clean from corruption and personality averaged at 19.4 percent, followed because the party was 8.3 percent," he explained.

The survey results also show that related to the level of consistency or determination of the choice of the people of East Kalimantan until voting day. With the Rudy Mas'ud-Seno Aji pair, said Togu, there are a number of voters who can change their choices.

"As for those who changed the choice of 10.3 percent, answered no 83.6 percent, and did not know 6.1 percent," he said.

"Then the Isran Noor-Hadi Mulyadi pair will change their choice by 32.7 percent, answer no 57.1 percent, and do not know 10.2 percent," he continued.

The survey also found reasons for respondents who could influence their choice if they were given money or goods. As a result, voters can change by 18.2 percent and are not affected by 81.8 percent.

The nominal amount of money which is expected to have an effect on changing the choice, namely Rp50 to Rp100 thousand as much as 10.3 percent and Rp100 thousand to Rp200 thousand as much as 15.9 percent. In addition, there is also the nominal amount which is expected to be Rp300 thousand and Rp400 thousand as much as 27.2 percent and Rp1 million or more as much as 46.6 percent.

"The results of this finding are a record for both the community and election organizers so that the regional elections run cleanly from political money which can ultimately harm the community. Because later the elected regional head will definitely be corruption to return the campaign capital," said Togu.

The results of this survey also illustrate that the political preferences of the people of East Kalimantan want a new leadership that is more trustworthy to be able to fulfill campaign promises in improving welfare for the people of East Kalimantan.

"The image of our survey results, there is hope for changes to the progress and welfare of the people in East Kalimantan," concluded Togu.

The latest LKPI survey was conducted on October 25 - November 5, 2024, involving 1,850 respondents in seven districts and three cities in East Kalimantan.

Respondents are also residents aged 17-75 years who have ID cards and are active in East Kalimantan every day. The survey margin of error is 2.28 percent with a confidence level of 95 percent