BMKG Calls El Nino Triggers Drought Disasters In The 2023 Dry Season

Illustration of drought in NTB (ANTARA)

JAKARTA - Head of the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) Dwikorita Karnawati said that the phenomenon of El Nino which is getting stronger with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) towards positive can trigger drought in Indonesia in the dry season.

Dwikorita said that the two phenomena had been predicted by the BMKG in March 2023, both of which had the potential to cause Indonesia to become drier.

The phenomenon of El Nino is influenced by sea level temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, and the Indian Ocean Dipole which is affected by temperatures in the Indian Ocean, both of which occur simultaneously this year's dry season.

"It is predicted that in the second semester it can have an impact on decreasing rainfall in some parts of Indonesia during this dry season period. In fact, some parts of Indonesia are predicted to experience rainfall under normal, or dryer than their normal conditions," said Dwikorita, quoted by ANTARA, Tuesday, June 6.

Referring to the drought phenomenon in 2019, Dwikorita explained that at that time it was caused by the IOD phenomenon which strengthened in a positive direction.

However, this year's dry season has two phenomena of El Nino and IOD that must be anticipated because they strengthen each other.

He explained that entering May 2023 until now, the phenomenon related to sea level temperatures in the Pacific Ocean has undergone changes that led to El Nino in June 2023 which resulted in the region getting warmer.

"The temperature anomaly in the Pacific Ocean is increasing, yes, it has now reached 0.8 and is close to 1. If it reaches number 1 means that El Nino is moderate, currently still 0.8 below 1, El Nino is weak, but there is a trend to immediately enter moderate," he said.

This indicates that the intensity is getting stronger with opportunities of more than 80 percent so that the Neutral ENSO shifts to the El Nino phase.

In addition, he said, climate disturbances also occurred in the Indian Ocean, namely the IOD, which is controlled by the sea level temperature in the Indian Ocean, which is currently in a directional phase towards a positive phase from June to October.