Indostrategi Survey Claims Prabowo Top Electability Triggered By Jokowi's Endorse

Minister of Defense Prabowo Subianto driving President Jokowi to test the new tactical vehicle named 'Maung' when it is displayed at the Ministry of Defense on January 18. (doc. Setkab)

JAKARTA - The Indostrategi Research and Consulting Institute released the latest survey results regarding the electability of the 2024 presidential candidate. Prabowo Subianto's name was in the first place, defeated by Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan.

"Prabowo still tops the highest electability rate if the presidential election is held today with a percentage gain of 32.9 percent," said Indostrategi Research and Consulting Director Arif Nurul Imam in a written statement, Monday 27 February, confiscated by Antara.

He explained that the second position was occupied by Ganjar with 21 percent and Anies with 19.8 percent.

According to him, the reason why the electability of the General Chair of the Gerindra Party is in the first place is that Prabowo's name is often mentioned in several government tasks involving the Ministry of Defense and President Jokowi.

"Jokowi's increasingly intense endorsement of Prabowo won support from Jokowi's loyal voters in 2019," he said.

The endorsement, he said, also has the potential to lead Jokowi's loyal voters to Ganjar Pranowo, migrating to support Prabowo Subianto.

"The intensity of Jokowi's support for Prabowo has resulted in the migration of Jokowi voters who are in Ganjar to Prabowo," he said.

The reason that tends to be very relevant today, he said, is because neither Ganjar nor Anies have the political certainty to advance in the Presidential Election market. 2024.

According to Arif, this uncertainty has the potential to trigger anxiety among supporters and sympathizers. One of them is the departure of the Ganjar Pranowo Mania (GP Mania) volunteer-led by Immanuel Ebenezer and turning it into Prabowo Mania 08.

Furthermore, another reason is related to Prabowo Subianto's actions in President Joko Widodo's government, so that many voters still position themselves as loyal voters of the General Chairperson of the Gerindra Party DPP.

"The improved perception of Prabowo's supporters regarding Prabowo's joining the government. Then, Prabowo's visits and activities to several provinces in the past are also suspected of gaining sympathy and support for him," he explained.

Furthermore, he said, Prabowo's performance as Defense Minister. Where there is a symmetrical relationship between Prabowo's performance and the TNI which has the highest trust from the public.

The survey was conducted from 14-23 February 2023 involving 1,230 respondents in 34 provinces in Indonesia. The survey measures the level of popularity and acceptability of 12 public figures.

The data collection technique uses multistage random sampling with a margin of error (MoE) of 2.83 percent and a 95 percent confidence level.

Registration for presidential and vice presidential candidates is scheduled for 19 October 2023 to 25 November 2023.

Based on Law Number 7 of 2017 concerning Elections (UU General Election), the presidential and vice presidential candidate pairs are proposed by political parties or coalitions of political parties participating in the election that meet the requirements for obtaining seats of at least 20 percent of the total seats in the DPR or obtaining 25 percent of valid votes. nationally in the previous parliamentary elections.

Currently, there are 575 seats in parliament so the presidential and vice presidential candidate pairs in the 2024 presidential election must have the support of at least 115 seats in the Indonesian Parliament. Candidate pairs can also be carried by political parties or a combination of political parties participating in the 2019 Election with a minimum total of 34,992,703 valid votes.