British Intelligence Reveals Russia Shortage Of Personnel: The Dilemma Of Sending Reserves To Donbas Or Defending Against Counterattack At Kherson

Illustration of a Russian tank. (Source: Russian Ministry of Defense/Evgeny Polovodov/Dmitry Gutov)

JAKARTA - British intelligence says Russia has struggled to maintain an effective offensive fighting force since the start of the invasion of Ukraine, making their current state likely vulnerable.

"In addition to facing a severe crew shortage, Russian planners face a dilemma between deploying reserves to the Donbass or defending against a Ukrainian counterattack in the southwestern Kherson sector," the Defense Ministry said in Tuesday's intelligence update.

The ministry further explained that while Russia may still make further territorial gains, its operational tempo and rate of progress will likely be very slow.

After failing to capture the capital Kyiv early in the invasion, Russian forces used a devastating bombing campaign and now control large swaths of southern and eastern Ukraine, where pro-Russian separatists already hold territory.

Russia ordered military units to intensify operations to prevent Ukrainian attacks in areas controlled by Russia, according to Ukraine, which at the weekend reported shelling along the front line in what it said was preparation for a new offensive.

As previously reported, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu instructed the country's Armed Forces, based in eastern Ukraine, to prioritize attacks on Ukraine's long-range weapons, according to a statement circulated by news agencies Monday.

Defense Minister Shoigu issued instructions to the Vostok (East) Battalion, as part of his second publicly announced visit to the front since Russia invaded Ukraine in February.

"Army General Sergei Shoigu, instructed commanders to prioritize long-range missiles and artillery weapons of the enemy," the Defense Ministry statement said, citing The Moscow Times.

Defense Minister Shoigu instructed units in all operational lines to eliminate the possibility of the Kyiv military, carrying out massive missile and artillery attacks on Russian-controlled areas.