JAKARTA - Western officials say Russia faces the prospect of its military units in Ukraine becoming ineffective in combat, after suffering heavy losses in personnel and equipment.
Moscow generals have been accused of "selling the family silver" by forming battalions of instructors, coaches and cooks, to set up formations for the front line.
At the same time, the Ukrainian army is carrying out a significant counter-offensive south to within 10 kilometers of Kherson, the only city that has fallen to Russian hands.
After withdrawing from the vicinity of the capital Kyiv in early April, Russia launched a new offensive in eastern Ukraine, using vast amounts of resources to seize the Donbas region.
"Russia has achieved creeping tactical success at a huge cost. Despite tremendous ammunition expenditures, its forces have barely moved since early June," the officials said, as reported by The National News June 21.
With an estimated 20.000 deaths since the February 24 invasion and many more seriously injured, they struggle to reshape the Tactical Battalion Group they once prided themselves on.
The military brigades are said to have deployed their third battalion, made up of trainers and others, to generate power after the first and second battalions suffered heavy losses.
"In terms of power generation, Russia is effectively selling the family silver," quipped a senior western official.
"This reserve deployment is related to the main theme of the assessment, where it comes to the point when Russia will stop being able to produce an effective offensive fighting force, due to a lack of ammunition as well as a shortage of combat units. We cannot yet speculate exactly when that point might be reached," he said.
While the Ukrainian military also suffered heavy losses, estimated at between 60 and 100 killed a day, there will come a time when "the small progress Russia is making becomes unsustainable given the costs," he added.
This would require a "significant pause" to regenerate their troops. However, with most Russians closed to media other than state-generated news, President Vladimir Putin remains "very optimistic about his willingness to bear the costs of the invasion."
But western training and arms supplies have allowed Ukraine to carry out a counter-offensive that could potentially reclaim lost territory. Now it seems, since the weekend, an operation has developed around the city of Kherson, which fell six days into the war.
"Ukrainian armed forces probably gained momentum in their counterattack near Kherson and are now probably between 10 and 20 kilometers from Kherson, which is the most intact city occupied by Russia."
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However, the official warned that Ukraine will face the same challenges in fighting in urban areas that suffer heavy casualties in excavated positions.
He also revealed that Russia's combat medical services are in such a bad state that many soldiers are dying unnecessarily.
"The medical capabilities of the Russian troops were a factor in the number of deaths," he said.
"Army formations are deployed not with a medical team capable of anesthesiologists, but also with only half the number of surgeons needed. This has been described to me as the kind of casualty care and medivac system, which you would expect you to see in World War Two, " he said.
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