Today's Rupiah Potentially Continues Weakening Due To External Sentiment

Illustration. (Photo: Doc. Antara)

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Thursday, January 9, 2025 is expected to weaken against the United States (US) dollar.

Quoting Bloomberg, on Wednesday, January 8, 2025, the rupiah spot exchange closed down 0.42 percent to the level of Rp. 16,210 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed down 0.19 percent to a price level of Rp. 16,201 per US dollar.

Director of PT Profit Forexindo Berjangka Ibrahim Assuaibi projects that job vacancies data that are stronger than expected will show strengthening in the US labor market.

"The reading comes days before the main data on non-farm payroll for December, which will give a more definite signal in the labor market this week," he said in his statement, quoted Thursday, January 9.

In addition, strong purchasing manager index (PMI) data for December 2024 also sparked concerns over high inflation. Inflation and power in the labor market are expected to give the Federal Reserve less push to cut interest rates.

Meanwhile, from within the country, Bank Indonesia (BI) recorded the position of Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves at the end of December 2024 amounting to 155.7 billion US dollars. This figure increased compared to the end of November 2024 of 150.2 billion US dollars. The increase in the position of foreign exchange reserves, among others, came from tax and service receipts, and withdrawal of government foreign loans.

Meanwhile, the position of foreign exchange reserves at the end of December 2024 is equivalent to financing 6.7 months of imports or 6.5 months of imports and payment of government foreign debt, and is above the international adequacy standard of around 3 months of imports.

BI assesses that foreign exchange reserves are able to support the resilience of the external sector and maintain macroeconomic and financial system stability. In the future, BI views foreign exchange reserves as adequate to support the resilience of the external sector.

BI also continues to strengthen synergies with the Government in strengthening external resilience so that it can maintain economic stability in order to support sustainable economic growth.

Furthermore, export prospects that remain positive and balance capital and financial transactions are expected to continue to record a surplus, in line with investor positive perceptions of the national economic outlook and attractive investment returns, supporting maintained external resilience.

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but close lower on trading Thursday, January 9, 2025, in the price range of Rp. 16,200 - Rp. 16,270 per US dollar.