SOE Issuers Are Predicted To Be Positive Towards The End Of 2023 And Elections, These Stocks Are Worth Collecting

Share illustration (Photo: dock. Antara)

JAKARTA - Towards the 2024 election, several state-owned shares or shares from the Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises (BUMN) will experience an increase plus momentum window dressing by the end of the year.

For information, investors can see the performance of the IDX BUMN20 index. Where this index contains 20 shares of BUMN and Regional Owned Enterprises (BUMD) along with their affiliates.

Based on data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), Wednesday, November 15, 2023. Throughout 2023 or year to date (ytd), the IDX BUMN20 index recorded a return of 1.71 percent, higher than the return of the LQ45 index which recorded a return of 1.82 percent.

Mirae Asset Sekuritas' Senior Investment Information, Muhammad Nafan Aji Gusta Utama, said that SOE shares still have an upside potential so that they have positive business prospects in the future, driven by political stability and relatively well maintained security.

"So that it creates a conditionive situation for investors to be able to continue investing in their homeland, so that they can be able to maintain stability in economic growth," he explained to VOI, Wednesday, November 15.

According to Nafan, political stability and security are the keys to economic growth, if you look historically since the 2004 election, state-owned issuers and especially the JCI have closed to the positive zone.

"In 2024 the JCI should have a good opportunity and be closed to the positive zone in 2023, especially supported by SOE issuers, especially in Bank Mandiri, BRI, BNI and Telkom which have a strong market cap and good benefits," he said.

Nafan assessed that the government's commitment to realizing sustainable infrastructure development in order to improve connectivity will be able to have a positive impact on SOE issuers, especially Banking, Infrastructure and Energy.

"For example, the connectivity of gas channels for PGAS and infrastructure issuers will continue to be carried out, especially since the IKN project is still ongoing because it has been mandated in the law and PP, so I think there are still positive prospects in the future," he said.

Meanwhile, Research Analyst Infovesta Kapital Advisory Arjun Ajwani conveyed that the movement of SOE issuers, especially SOEs employees, was still less prospective because they still had some problems.

"If the SOE depends on the shares of BUMN, the work is still less prospective because it has problems, so there are still big losses and debt problems are also quite serious where the PKPU problem etc," he explained.

Arjun assessed that investors still remember the SOE scandal related to the alleged corruption case, so that state-owned issuers need to make changes and this becomes a difficult challenge for future presidential candidates.

However, Arjun conveyed the movement between BUMN Karya issuers and different Banking SOE issuers where Banking SOEs have positive outlooks because they have solid fundamentals.

In addition, state-owned banking issuers are projected to have growth next year of 10 percent - 12 percent or even higher than this year driven by the existence of a political year.

Meanwhile, Henan Putihrai Sekuritas analyst Jono Syafei assessed that in general before the year of stock exchange politics tended to move flat or weaken and after the election was over, it would be positive again.

However, Jono saw that in the last 5 years state-owned issuers such as BBNI, BBRI, BMRI, PTBA and TLKM tended to strengthen due to window dressing sentiment.

"But this is not a guarantee that it will definitely increase at the end of the year," he said.

Jono said that next year state-owned issuers such as the construction and cement sectors can be considered because they have good prospects driven by projects from IKN, and added with efforts to improve the balance sheet.

According to Jono, construction stocks can be looked at by investors such as SMGR, JSMR, and PTPP.

Arjun recommends buying for BBRI shares with a target price of Rp5,750, BBNI with a target price of Rp5,200, BRIS with a target price of Rp1,710, and BMRI with a target price of Rp6,300.

Meanwhile, Nafan assessed that TLKM's shares were still attractive to observe with a target price of IDR 3,800, ADHI with a target price of IDR 440 and PTPP with a target price of IDR 660.

Furthermore, BBNI with a target price of Rp5,425, SMGR with a target price of Rp7,100, WIKA with a target price of Rp430, and BMRI with a target price of Rp6,200