Anies Baswedan Vs Joko Widodo In The 2024 Jakarta Pilkada: Who Is Tougher?

Supporters of Cagub and Cawagub DKI Jakarta number 3, Pramono Anung-Rano Karno, attended the last grand campaign at the Bung Karno Intermediate Stadium, Jakarta, Saturday (11/23/2024). (ANTARA PHOTO/Hafidz Mubarak A/foc)

JAKARTA The figure of Rano Karno alias Bang Doel in the 2024 Jakarta Regional Head Election or Pilkada changed the political map. The presence of Anies Baswedan, Joko Widodo (Jokowi), President Prabowo Subianto, to Rizieq Shihab was only a reinforcement in the election for the Governor of Jakarta on November 27.

The Jakarta regional elections present three pairs of candidates to be selected, namely Ridwan Kamil-Suswono, Dharma Pongrekun-Kun Wardana, and Pramono Anung-Rano Karno.

However, in the middle of the street names such as former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan, former President Jokowi, and President Prabowo Subianto participated in the Jakarta Pilkada contestation.

Even the former Islamic Brotherhood Front (FPI) frontman named the Islamic Defenders Front also went down the mountain. If Anies expressed his support for the number three pair Pramono and Rano, Jokowi and Prabowo all out for Ridwan Kamil-Suswono alias RIDO.

Political Communication Analyst and founder of the Indonesian Public Opinion Discussion and Study Group Survey Institute (KedaiKOPI) Hendri Satrio said that the 2024 Jakarta Pilkada figures were actually Pramono Anung, Ridwan Kamil, Dharma Pongrekun, and Suswono, but Rano Karno.

Although at the beginning of the electability of Pramono-Rano Karno was left behind from RIDO, slowly but surely the pair promoted by the PDI Perjuangan managed to stick tight, even in several survey institutions ahead of Ridwan Kamil-Suswono.

Related to this, Hendro Satrio said that Rano Karno had an important role in controlling the electability of candidate pairs number three.

Compared to other candidates, the name Rano Karno has been known to the public because he is a film actor for a long time. His name soared when he played the character Si Doel in the soap opera Si Doel Anak Sekolah in the 1990s.

Si Doel's character in the soap opera is described as a kind figure, a native Betawi child, maintaining Betawi culture, and'very much in Jakarta'. Until now, this impression is still very attached to Rano Karno, even the addition of Si Doel's name in the ballot paper later.

So when the emergence of Rano Karno really changes the political map. People know RK very well, people must know Pram too. But Rano Karno is already known, "said the man who is familiarly called Hensat

"Although Jakarta residents are known to be rational, Rano Karno's popularity is a plus for him to be superior to other candidates," he added.

Regarding the presence of Anies, Prabowo, Jokowi, even Habib Rizieq in providing support on the 2024 Pilkada stage, according to Hensat, it was nothing more as a booster.

"Because previously the community had already been attracted to Si Doel," he said.

Based on the latest survey, Pramono Anung-Rano Karno's electability pursued each other with Ridwan Kamil-Suswono. The pair mentioned first excelled in three surveys conducted by Indopolling, Polmark, and Indicators. Each survey agency noted that Pramono-Si Doel's electability was 48.4 percent, 40.3 percent, and 42.9 percent.

However, Pramono's advantage was not too far compared to that of RIDO with 38.4 percent electability and 34.8 percent in Indopolling and Polmark. Meanwhile, Political Indicators say that RIDO only narrowly lost with 39.2 percent electability.

Despite being superior in various surveys, Hensat did not consider this a guarantee that the Pramono-Si Doel pair would easily win the 2024 Jakarta Pilkada. He even made an analogy of the Pilkada battle like a football match, anywhere that could happen.

"In Pilkada like football, the ball is round. The sound can be seen as something that can change, especially since their electability is small," he said.

Seeing the fairly fierce competition between the Pramono - Si Doel and RK Suswono pairs, it is not impossible that the Jakarta Pilkada will last two rounds. If that happens, Hensat predicts victory will belong to RIDO.

According to him, there is a unique phenomenon in the Jakarta Pilkada, namely that pairs of candidates who have high electability based on the survey will even lose. So far, based on his observations, no candidate has ever had the highest electability surveys to win the Jakarta Pilkada.

"In the past, Fauzi Bowo, in 2012, had a high survey, lost to Jokowi. Ahok was the same, 2017 had a high survey, fell by Anies, so in my opinion, usually, the surveys were high, they lost in the Jakarta Pilkada," Hensat explained.

He also emphasized more strongly whether the grassroots base of the supporting party is one of the factors in winning the candidate pairs in the Jakarta Pilkada. This has been open since the Jakarta Pilkada was held directly in 2007, because only one candidate has been supported by many political parties to win the competition. This happened when Fauzi Bowo defeated Adang Daradjatun from PKS in 2007.

"The rest? Jokowi won because of the grassroots of the PDI Perjuangan in 2012, but Anies Baswedan in 2017 also had the PKS-Gerindra grassroots managed to beat Basuki Tjahja Purnama which was promoted by PDI Perjuangan, Golkar, Hanura, and Nasdem," he said.