Anies Baswedan Shipwreck Before Sailing?

Former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan stopped by to stay in touch with residents in South Tugu, Koja, North Jakarta. (Instagram/@aniesbaswedan)

JAKARTA - The strained relationship between Anies Baswedan and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and other parties that took realistic steps made the Anies chance to run again in the 2024 Jakarta Regional Head Election run low, although it was not closed at all.

The relationship between Anies and PKS, which used to be so close, now seems to be heating up after the two argued about the deadline for Anies' candidacy for the 2024 Jakarta Regional Head Election.

In the past few days, Anies' voicemail recording for PKS Jakarta DPW Chairman Khoiruddin was leaked and circulated on social media. The recording of the conference note contains Anies Baswedan's clarification regarding the deadline for the coalition party search to carry Anies-Sohibul Iman.

In the 9-minute 56-second voice message, Anies admitted that he was surprised about the 40-day deadline from PKS to find a coalition party. Previously, PKS spokesman M Kholid said that the man who was born in 1969 was given until August 4, 2024 to look for a coalition party.

On the other hand, PKS President Ahmad Syaikhu said his party leadership had established communication with Elected President Prabowo Subianto. He revealed this after the PKS Syura XI Council Conference in Jakarta. Ahmad even said that his party's relationship with Prabowo had been established since the 2014 and 2019 presidential elections.

Until mid-August, Anies Baswedan still has not yet found a coalition to run again in the 2024 Pilkada. Whereas previously, he was supported by PKS who wanted Anies to run with Sohibul Iman as Cawagub Jakarta.

In addition, the NasDem Party also expressed support for Anies. But Anies' journey to the 2024 Jakarta Pilkada did not match expectations. PKS spokesman Muhammad Kholid said his party's support for the Anies Baswedan-Sohibul Iman pair had expired.

Likewise, NasDem, who previously gave a signal of supporting Anies, right back. NasDem Party chairman Surya Paloh said his party had agreed to cooperate with the Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka government.

"I have told Mr. Anies, 'Pak Anies, you are your younger brother, this is not your moment to run in the Jakarta Pilkada. We are looking for a more precise momentum in the future.' There is that understanding," said Surya Paloh, as reported by Antara.

He made this statement after meeting the Head of Gerindra as well as the Elected President Prabowo at his residence, Thursday (15/8). Seeing the current situation, it is arguably that the Anies ship sank before sailing.

Political observer from Al-Azhar University Indonesia Andriadi Achmad said the political parties are looking for a coalition to carry candidates in the election contestation and the presidential election is a necessity. This is because the requirements for a minimum of 20 percent of political party seats in both the DPRD and the DPR RI to propose candidates for regional heads and presidents.

Nationally, Andriadi said, no political parties will get the dominant votes. Likewise in the regions, including DK Jakarta, there is not a single political party that can no candidate for governor candidate alone. PKS, even as the winner of the 2024 Jakarta Legislative Election, has only obtained 18 out of 106 seats. It takes at least 22 seats for political parties to apply for candidate pairs.

"In multi-party politics in Indonesia, the coalition of political parties in carrying candidates in the election contestation and the presidential election is a necessity," Andriadi told VOI.

However, due to the uncertainty of other parties in supporting Anies, Andriadi assessed that the PKS decision to take an alternative, namely joining KIM, was a realistic step. "Of course not with blank checks, there are even indications of cawagub for PKS and several other positions such as ministers for PKS if they join KIM," he added.

After PKS-Anies' relationship collapsed, NasDem shifted support, and PKB is still advancing, now the only party that has the potential to carry Anies is PDIP.

Previously, PDIP DPP Chair Puan Maharani said that she had established communication with Anies Baswedan. He said Anies' support could be above 50 percent. Although this is quite difficult, Andriadi did not close the remaining opportunities for Anies to run for the Pilkada with PDIP support.

"Without PKS, there is still an alternative Anies supported by PDIP, of course, in a coalition with other parties. We'll see if we win the time registration at the KPU," he said.

The same thing was said by a political expert from UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta Adi Prayitno. Kans Anies in the Jakarta DK Pilkada became without PKS.

However, Adi added, no one will ever know whether at the last moment before the registration of the candidate pair at the Jakarta KPU, suddenly support for Anies appeared.

Meanwhile, a political observer from the National Innovation Research Agency (BRIN), Firman Noor, has the opportunity for Anies Baswedan to run in the Jakarta Pilkada not to be closed. Firman said Anies actually had political capital to contest Jakarta thanks to his legacy or legacy during his tenure as Governor of Jakarta from 2017-2022.

"Legacydia is many and is still quite strongly remembered by the people of Jakarta, its breakthroughs, (and) its ability to unite the citizens of Jakarta. If it can be capitalized, I think the opportunity is still there," he said.

The General Election Commission (KPU) of DKI Jakarta will open the registration of candidates for governor and deputy governor of the Jakarta Regional Election for three days, namely 27-29 August 2024.