Read The Opportunity For 3 Potential New Candidates, But Don't Have A 'Vehicle'
JAKARTA - The names of potential candidates in the 2024 presidential election are increasingly being evaporated to the public. Interestingly, the electability of new names has actually increased from several surveys.
There was a surprise from the Indonesia Political Opinion (IPO) survey on the electability of political figures in the 2024 presidential election. The IPO found that SOE Minister Erick Tohir had a high electability increase.
However, in the top position, DKI Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan stood firm, leaving Ganjar Pranowo, Sandiaga S Uno, Prabowo Subianto, Ridwan Kamil (RK), and several political figures busy putting up billboards.
The IPO principal researcher, Catur Nugroho, said that in a simulation of 20 names of nominees for the 2024 presidential election, Anies Baswedan ranked at the top with 18.7 percent, Ganjar Pranowo 16.5 percent, Sandiaga Uno 13.5 percent, and Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY) 9,9 percent.
Meanwhile, Prabowo Subianto got 7.8 percent, Ridwan Kamil 6.2 percent, Erick Tohir 4.7 percent, and Tito Karnavian 3.6 percent.
"Suharso Monoarfa, Grace Natalie, and Mahfud MD did not receive a public response or 0.0 percent," said Catur, Saturday, August 14.
Catur said that Erick Tohir and Zulkifli Hasan were elites who had not started the popularity engine, but instead their popularity grew significantly.
Recently, Ridwan Kamil stated that he was ready to run for the 2024 presidential election. Meanwhile, Anies and Erick were still 'shy'. It's just that, although the three of them are ready to participate in the presidential election contestation, unfortunately there is no political 'vehicle' to smooth their intentions towards the 2024 presidential election.
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Erick Tohir
The name of the Minister of SOEs, Erick Thohir, is widely rumored to be running for the 2024 presidential election. Erick is seen to be more active in public and his electability in several survey institutions is starting to increase.
Political observer from Al Azhar University Andriadi Achmad, assessed that Erick Thohir had the same opportunity as other candidates to taste the presidential election contestation. It's just that Erick needs to try to find a political 'vehicle' if he wants to run for president.
"Actually, anyone can and is not prohibited from declaring himself a presidential candidate. Of course, with the requirements set out in the Presidential Election Law that the presidential and vice-presidential candidate pairs can be proposed by a political party or a combination of political parties with a minimum vote of 20 percent of the seats in the DPR RI and a minimum of 25 percent. percent of the votes are valid nationally," Andriadi told VOI, Wednesday, October 6.
This means, continued Andriadi, anyone who runs as a candidate for presidential and vice-presidential candidates must ensure which political parties will support them. Therefore, the fundamental question is whether Erick Thohir already has a political party that will support him in the upcoming 2024 presidential election.
"So far, Erick Thohir is not active and is not registered as one of the cadres of any political party. Therefore, it is necessary to make sure from the start if ET wants to run for the 2024 presidential election, it must ensure that political parties support the existing political parties in parliament or establish new political parties to support him in the 2024 presidential election," he explained.
Andriadi gave an example of several figures who wished to run in the presidential election since 2004 who later established political parties or were active as political party cadres. For example, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) founded the Democratic Party, Wiranto founded the Hanura Party, Prabowo founded Gerindra, and other figures.
"Unlike Jokowi, he did not establish a political party, but joined and was active as a PDIP cadre," he said.
Therefore, the Executive Director of the Nusantara Institute PolCom SRC assesses how much financial capital, social capital, and popularity capital Erick Thohir has, if it is not supported by political parties, it is certain that he cannot participate as a contestant in the 2024 presidential election.
"Only after it is clear that the supporting political parties will be easier to step up and socialize themselves to the public," he said.
Meanwhile, Minister of State-Owned Enterprises (BUMN) Erick Thohir still dodged when asked about the opportunity to enliven the 2024 presidential election.
"I don't think about that and 2024 is still a long time away," said Erick after delivering the Workshop material at the PAN DPP event in Bali, Tuesday, October 5.
"I think this is the context where we both agree. Today, the people are still struggling with health, the economy. We are more focused on that. The important thing is to focus on work and we make sure our economy gets back up again," he continued.
Anies Baswedan
DKI Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan is considered to be facing a tough road if he wants to run for the 2024 presidential election.
With the possibility that his seat as the number one person in the capital will be replaced by the acting governor in 2022, Anies will face two years without a political stage.
"First, maintaining performance and electability, of course, is not an easy job. In 2022, Anies will no longer be the governor and therefore no longer has a political stage. That is where the real electability test is," explained UIN Syarif Hidayatullah political analyst Adi Prayitno, Wednesday, October 6.
"Whatever the title, two years without a political stage is very influential, both in terms of news, political conversations," he added.
So far, Anies is indeed one of the figures with the brightest electability among other figures.
However, Anies who incidentally comes from a professional background does not have official support from political parties for his political career.
Meanwhile, Adi assessed that the tendency of political parties ahead of the 2024 presidential election is to promote their elites to advance. This leaves Anies without any guarantee to secure the opportunity to the State Palace.
Unfortunately, Anies Baswedan is still reluctant to respond to the 2024 presidential election. In fact, when he was present at the PAN event in Bali, Anies remained silent.
Ridwan Kamil
West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil has opened up that he is ready to run in the 2024 presidential election. Kang Emil, as he is known, will also receive support from any party to become a presidential candidate in 2024.
"Hopefully, whoever supports it should not be rejected, as long as the support is good, mutually reinforcing, it must be a political collaboration that we are waiting for," said Kang Emil at the PAN DPP Workshop in Bali, Tuesday, October 5.
Ridwan Kamil himself admitted that he had met with all political parties a few months ago. But so far, no one has discussed the 2024 presidential election.
A political observer who is also the Executive Director of Indonesian Political Parameters, Adi Prayitno, assesses Ridwan Kamil is one of the potential figures to be promoted to become a presidential and vice-presidential candidate in 2024.
At least Ridwan Kamil has three capitals. First, is his position as Governor of West Java, the province with the largest population in Indonesia.
Second, is that its performance has received positive appreciation from the community.
"The third capital is high electability. It is not easy to get a top-five position in the electability survey," said Adi.
"These three variables will make Kang Emil even though he doesn't have a political party, they will be realistic. When political parties want to compete and want to win, they must be realistic. They don't just want to force themselves to run," he added.