3-Periods Presidential Discourse: Where Does It Come From?

JAKARTA - The discourse on a three-period presidential term is on again after Indo Barometer Executive Director Muhammad Qodari initiated the formation of the 'Jokowi-Prabowo (JokPro) Community for 2024' to encourage President Joko Widodo to run again as a presidential candidate.

JokPro volunteers support Jokowi running for president in 2024 accompanied by Prabowo Subianto as a vice-presidential candidate.

So, where did the discourse of the 3-periods presidents come from?

A political observer from Surveylink Indonesia (Sulindo) Wempi Hadir, assessed that there are certain groups who are trying to consciously design a movement to support the extension of the presidential term of office to 3 periods. Then try to do testing on the water.

"They are trying to see how the reaction will be to the movement. It is very clear that if you read the theory of cause and effect, you can further investigate who will benefit from this situation," Wempi said in a discussion on the Syndicate Election Update entitled '3 Periods Presidential Discourse: Where did it come from, where did it go? The direction?' monitored by VOI online, Wednesday, June 23.

Interestingly, said Wempi, in a short time there were two movements that appeared simultaneously. Namely the Jokowi-Prabowo Community (JokPro) in Jakarta and the Referendum Committee for the presidential term in East Nusa Tenggara (NTT).

"It's almost the same theme, the first talk is pushing for 3 periods of presidential, the second is trying to amend Article 7 of the 1945 Constitution," he explained.

"Therefore, if we talk about causal theory, I think the people who will lose power, economy, social politics, the loss of Jokowi's position in 2024 I think these people are responsible for today's political movements," continued Wempi.

Second, he continued, today's political party groups do not dare to express their position clearly and even look very gray. For example, the Party, NasDem, and even its general chairman, Surya Paloh, did not give a firm statement to reject the position of 3 presidential terms.

"This shows that it is Jokowi who has political power. We know that today Jokowi has 74.26 percent political power in the governing coalition today," he explained.

"This power is absolute. Because more than 70 percent of political power is owned by Jokowi. So anything can happen, changes to the law can really happen because the power is so adequate, the question is whether Jokowi wants it or not," Wempi added.

That, according to Wempi, is why the movement is trying to push Jokowi to become president for three terms. This is because they are well aware that the political power of the two-term president is extraordinary.

Third, Wempi said, they saw that Jokowi had not yet said that he would not run.

In political events, Wempi gave an example of how Jokowi said that his son would not be involved in politics. Before Gibran entered the Solo Pilkada contestation.

At the same time, Jokowi was tempted by the deadly seduction of those closest to him to push Gibran into the contest for mayor of Solo and everything happened.

"I am afraid that Jokowi will not be strong with the seductions and temptations made by the invisible government. Now this invisible government is not political parties, but people who control power in the palace. They have political stakes that make Jokowi president," he explained.

And today, continued Wempi, the people who own political shares see that the "cake of power" must not be lost to them for 10 years until 2024.

Therefore, according to Wempi, they designed it so that hegemony or power would last.

"And the impact of power is 3 things. First, the accumulation of power or wealth. Second, it is about political power. The third is about social issues, there is a social increase for people around Jokowi," he said.

If Jokowi is not careful, Wempi added, then Jokowi will be trapped in a scenario of violating the law in order to extend the power of the parties concerned. Jokowi, he said, would print a dark history for Indonesian democracy.

"Well, things like this we can see people playing with various ways of changing the law, crashing into democracy and the most important is the scenario of trapping Jokowi and printing a dark history for this nation if Jokowi is not careful," Wempi emphasized.

Post Power Syndrome

Meanwhile, Formappi Chairman Lucius Karus assessed that the discourse on a three-period presidential term was driven by the fear that the ruling circle would lose its power after the current president stepped down, aka post power syndrome.

"People who already enjoy power are afraid of losing power," said Lucius in a discussion on the Syndicate Election Update entitled "Presidential Discourse 3 Periods Where it Comes from, Where is it Going" virtually, Wednesday, June 23.

He explained that the discourse of 3 presidential terms was not only in the Jokowi era but also in the era of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY). In fact, this discourse appeared just before Jokowi was sworn in in October 2019.

"I think the push for constitutional amendments always appeared in the second period of government, both in the SBY and Jokowi eras. It must have been driven by the fear that was afflicted by the supporting political parties, who felt that after 5 years the period of power disappeared," he explained.

"So, it's natural that power is a pleasure and almost certainly people who have enjoyed power always have a desire to prolong it," continued Lucius.

According to him, it is not too surprising that the discourse of the 3rd term of office has emerged. What really surprises me, said Lucius, is that this discourse has appeared wildly recently in the public sphere without any official statements from political parties, DPR, MPR, and DPD RI.

"This is interesting, then it becomes difficult to pinpoint whose nose is the most responsible for this discourse. Which interest groups can we appoint as a group that has an interest in this discourse?" he said.

This, he continued, was the reason why in Jokowi's second term, the discourse on changing the term of office seemed to be discussed longer than the SBY era in 2010.

"The only thing is because the MPR has opened a space for that. Until now they have not closed the faucet on amending the constitution to restore the GBHN in our constitution," he said.

At the same time, said Lucius, many groups have an interest in ensuring that the issues they push for are amended along with the MPR's desire to amend the constitution to restore the GBHN.

"So I think the naughty thoughts in many figures who have appeared recently are maintained by the MPR, which until now has not been clear (its attitude, ed) to amend the constitution to restore the GBHN," he explained.

Lucius suspects that not only people think about extending the term of office of the president, but there are many groups with their own interests that have agendas related to constitutional amendments.

For example, DPD RI to strengthen its authority. Then there is also a group that wants the president elected by the MPR.

"I think these discourses at the beginning of 2020 or the end of 2019 were widely discussed and until now the DPR/MPR have never issued an official statement that they are withdrawing the agenda to restore the GBHN in our constitution," he said.

As long as there is no space or opportunity for the respective interest groups to make changes to the constitution, said Lucius, the rogue parties seem to get wind of waiting for the time to amend to restore the GBHN.

At the same time, he added, this group will emerge, including the wildest is the discourse of extending the presidential term.

"And when this appears wildly in the public sphere without any political party claiming it, I think it can be interpreted as bait. We don't know for sure whether in the DPR or MPR the discussion regarding changes to the constitution related to this term of office is discussed," he said.

Recognition at the end of 2019 from PKS, for example, that there was talk about the presidential term in their discourse on amending the constitutional mandate. "I think it's hard to believe then that no political party has announced plans for this term of office," said Lucius.

Lucius said that political parties would definitely benefit from the discourse on extending the term of office of the president, in which it is clear that the president's affairs are the affairs of political parties. Only those who are allowed to nominate the president until the extension of this term of office will be enjoyed by political parties.

"Only now playing directly raises this discourse, of course, it is risky, especially not later, so it will backfire for political parties," said Lucius Karus.