US & South Korean Intelligence Monitor Sinpo, Oversees New North Korean Submarine Launch

JAKARTA - The South Korean Ministry of Defense announced in a statement Monday, March 29 that South Korean intelligence authorities and the United States were working together to monitor the situation at the Sinpo shipyard.

This statement was conveyed by the Deputy Spokesperson for the Ministry of Defense of South Korea, Mrs. Seung-chan, regarding the information on the 38 North websites which displays the movement of launch preparations at the Sinpo shipyard.

"The Intelligence Authority of South Korea and the United States are currently analyzing further information from various sources," he said.

Meanwhile, according to the Korea Times, the alleged launch was in line with activity at the shipyard, which captured satellite imagery as published by the 38 North website on Friday last week.

The activity referred to is the change to a floating dry dock that is usually moored at the nearest dock, now its position is along the submarine launch dock, parallel to the construction hall.

The unusual arrangement raises an assessment of the possibility of a new ballistic missile submarine launch already being completed, or the likelihood that the ship is nearing completion and ready to launch in the near future.

Alternatively, the dry dock might be there for adjustment of rail alignment to the one on the dock, as no known submarines have been launched from this location to date,

It is known that North Korea is building a new submarine which is believed to have a capacity of 3 thousand tons. The submarine is capable of carrying three submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM).

As for 38 North, there are a number of reasons for a possible submarine launch. First, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited the construction hall at Sinpho on July 23, 2019, to inspect the ROMEO-class submarine being modified to accommodate missile launch tubes.

Next, the spare parts yard adjacent to the construction hall, which has been mostly observed during the construction process, has been empty since last summer. This indicates major structural work has been completed.

In addition, at a military parade after the Labor Party Congress in mid-January, North Korea showed off its larger Pukguksong-4 and Pukguksong-5 submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM). These two SLBM missiles require a larger submarine than the existing Gorae Class (Sinpo Class) submarines.