Community Movement At The Moment Of Eid Holidays Can Maintain Second Quarter 2023 Economic Growth

Illustration - Money turnover during the Eid al-Adha 2023 holiday period can reach around IDR 120 trillion. (Between)

JAKARTA A number of popular tourist attractions in Jabotabek during the long Eid al-Adha 2023 holiday are crowded with visitors. For example in the Ancol Taman Impian tourist area, North Jakarta. On June 29, the total number of visitors reached more than 50 thousand people.

Then, on June 30, 2023, until 13.00 WIB, visitors have reached 22 thousand people. This number, according to PT Pembangunan Jaya Ancol's Head of Corporate Communications, Ariyadi Eko Nugroho, is likely to continue to increase until the evening and will continue until its peak on July 1, 2023.

"In terms of numbers, there has indeed been an increase compared to holidays on weekdays," said Eko when confirmed.

Likewise with Ragunan Wildlife Park, South Jakarta. The number of visitors continues to increase from only about 5,000 on June 28, 2023, to reach more than 17 thousand visitors on June 29, 2023.

"Today, as of 12.00 WIB, more than 20 thousand visitors have entered Ragunan," said Head of Public Relations of Ragunan Wildlife Park (TMR) Bambang Wahyudi on June 30, 2023.

Not much different from the Puncak area, Bogor. The volume of vehicles entering the Puncak area has increased since the first day of the holiday, although it has not been significant. As of Friday morning, June 30, 2023, there have been more than 39 thousand vehicles recorded.

The same condition also occurs in popular tourist attractions in Indonesia, such as Bali and Yogyakarta. This indicates that the community really takes advantage of the holiday moment. Thus, the government's decision to increase the schedule for collective leave at this year's Eid al-Adha moment is very appropriate.

The movement of the community accompanied by large consumption activities will certainly accelerate the pace of the economy.

For example, during the Eid al-Fitr holiday. When referring to the research results of the Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy on 19-25 April 2023, the average public expenditure at this moment reached IDR 2,708,735. The largest expenditure is used for transportation (23.4 percent), accommodation (22 percent), culinary (20 percent), and souvenirs, souvenirs, fashion, and craft (14 percent).

The conditions are the same, the sectors listed in the results of the research will also increase during this year's Eid holiday.

Even so, said the Economist from the Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios), Bhima Yudhistira, the increase is certainly different.

In Eid al-Fitr, there are traditions of homecoming and holiday allowances (THR) that are able to encourage massive circulation of money in the regions.

"This time, the Eid al-Adha holiday is more local or the impact tends to be around Jabodetabek (Jakarta, Bogor, Depok, Tangerang, Bekasi), only followed by tourist destinations such as Yogyakarta and Bali," said the Director of Celios in his statement on Friday, June 30, 2023.

Bhima projects that the circulation of money during the Eid al-Adha holiday period is only around 40-50 percent of the Eid al-Fitr holiday or around Rp. 120 trillion.

"Recovery of community mobility after the pandemic and rising recreational spending, of course, is expected to be able to maintain economic growth in the second quarter in the range of 5 percentyear on year," he said.

The projection of Indonesia's economic growth, as written in the Indonesia Economic Outlook Q2-2023 report titled 'Back to the Old Normal' in May 2023, is slowly starting to normalize. This can be seen from the level of consumption, investment, and other aspects that have returned to normal.

However, overall, Indonesia's economic growth in 2023 is not yet fully expected to return to pre-pandemic conditions. It is even possible to slow down

According to the Head of HSBC Global Research Economist for India and Indonesia, Pranjul Bhandari in a discussion session with the media in Jakarta last May, there were four factors that caused it.

First, the global economic condition has not returned to stability at this time. Second, the continuing monetary tightening policy in developed countries, such as the potential risk of defaulting on US debt.

Third, stricter fiscal policy in line with the government's efforts to reduce debt and return the APBN deficit target to below 3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Fourth, the political uncertainty factor ahead of the 2024 election which could encourage investor doubts.

As reported by Kompas Daily, Pranjul predicts, investors in the political year usually choose to wait until political uncertainty ends and a new government is formed. Investors will also await the direction of the new regime's economic policies before deciding to invest and expand their business.

Although slowing down, investment will not decline dramatically. The government's structural reform measures will help reduce the impact of uncertainty.

"Moreover, Indonesia still has promising new sectors, such as the basic metal industry and nickel downstream which are expected to continue to grow amid global economic turmoil," he said.