Electability Of Presidential Candidates In West Java: Prabowo 44.2 Percent, Anies 25.0 Percent, Ganjar 21.8 Percent

Poltracking Survey

JAKARTA - The Indonesian Poltracking survey institute released a map of the electoral power of presidential candidates (candidates) in West Java.

As a result, in the 3 simulations of presidential candidates, Prabowo Subianto obtained an electability rate of 44.2 percent far above the other two candidates, namely Anies Baswedan with 25.0 percent and Ganjar Pranowo 21.8 percent.

"However, the electability trend of the three candidates tends to increase. The highest increase in the survey period range is at Prabowo Subianto 5.7 percent, followed by Anies Baswedan 3.0 percent, then Ganjar Pranowo 1.6 percent," said Director of Research at Poltracking Indonesia Arya Budi, in a survey presentation released on Tuesday, October 10.

The Poltracking survey divides the power map in the Agglomeration-Cultural region in West Java.

In the simulation of 3 presidential candidates, in the Megapolitan Region which contributed 27.0 percent of West Java's votes, Prabowo Subianto's electability far led with 40.9 percent, Ganjar Pranowo 29.3 percent, and Anies Baswedan 27.4 percent.

In Pantura which contributed 26.0 percent, Prabowo's electability was still 33.6 percent superior, Ganjar Pranowo 28.5 percent, and Anies Baswedan 25.0 percent. In the Greater Bandung region with 19.0 percent, Prabowo Subianto's electability was in the top position with 40.7 percent, Anies Baswedan 23.2 percent, and Ganjar Pranowo 10.2 percent.

Then in East Priangan with a vote contribution rate of 16.0 percent, Prabowo Subianto's electability 53.2 percent, Anies Baswedan 23.4 percent, and Ganjar Pranowo 20.9 percent. While in West Priangan with 12.0 percent, Prabowo Subianto's electability shot up with 66.1 percent, Anies Baswedan 22.9 percent, and Ganjar Pranowo 7.6 percent.

"From these various regional bases, Prabowo tends to excel," said Arya Budi.

Meanwhile, the electability of vice presidential candidates in West Java with a simulation of 11 names, Ridwan Kamil received the highest electability rate with 30.4 percent, followed by Erick Thohir 14.5 percent, and Muhaimin Iskandar 13.0 percent.

Meanwhile, Sandiaga Salahuddin Uno 9.1, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono 8.1 percent, Mahfud MD 3.2 percent, Gibran Rakabuming Raka 3.1 percent, Andika Perkasa 2.0 percent, Puan Maharani 1.4 percent, Airlangga Hartarto 1.1 percent, and Khofifah Indar Parawansa 0.5 percent.

"Political maps are still very likely to change depending on elite calculations and voters' decisions in determining their choices in the 2024 election," added Arya Budi.

Poltracking Indonesia conducted a survey on September 25-1 October 2023 in West Java using a stratified multistage random sampling method. The number of samples in this survey is 1000 respondents with a margin of error +/- 3.1 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.

Survey clusters reach 27 regencies/cities in West Java proportionally based on data on the number of the 2024 Permanent Voter List (DPT), while the stratification of this survey is the proportion of voter gender.

Data collection is carried out by trained interviewers through face-to-face interviews using digital application technology for randomly selected respondents.