Gerindra's Electability Boosts PDIP In The Polmatrix Survey

The presidential candidate from the Gerindra party Prabowo Subianto (center) delivered his political speech during the 25th Anniversary of the Crescent Star Party (PBB)/ANTARA PHOTO/Muhammad Iqbal/nz

JAKARTA - The results of the Indonesian Polmatrix survey showed that Gerindra's electability reached 15.8 percent amid the soaring electability of Prabowo Subianto in the presidential candidate exchange.

Direktur Eksekutif Polmatrix Indonesia Dendik Rulianto mengungkapkan kenaikan signifikan elektabilitas Gerindra terjadi sepanjang paruh awal 2023. Awalnya, Gerindra hanya berkisar 11 persen pada bulan Januari naik menjadi 13 persen, dan kini 15 persen.

Meanwhile, PDIP, which was previously 18 percent, then slumped and lasted at 16.2 percent. Even though PDIP remains superior, Gerindra's electability trend provides an opportunity to shift to second place.

"This means that PDIP's determination to score a hat-trick or win three times in a row in the upcoming 2024 election could be threatened with failure," said Dendik as quoted by ANTARA, Tuesday, August 1.

He said that in the position below him, Golkar, which is often in the top three, has now dropped to fifth with an electability of 7.6 percent. PKB overtook third place 8.1 percent, followed by Democrats 7.6 percent, PSI 6 percent and PKS 4.3 percent.

"Gerindra has the opportunity to leave as the winning party for the 2024 election, meanwhile Golkar has dropped to fifth," he said.

According to Dendik, Ganjar Pranowo's stagnation after the declaration made PDIP unable to gain a retail effect as Prabowo and Gerindra did.

"PDIP requires a more accurate move to be able to boost the electability of the presidential and party candidates," explained Dendik.

A number of maneuvers were carried out by PDIP, by trying to shake up other coalition members. Before leaving for Hajj, Puan Maharani held a meeting with Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono in the midst of tensions within the Change Coalition.

The attraction between the Democrats and Nasdem regarding the vice presidential candidate, Anies Baswedan, has created a potential for a split in the coalition. This is because PDIP and Democrats are both looking for opportunities by approaching the two parties.

Recently, Puan also met with Muhaimin Iskandar (PKB) and Airlangga Hartarto (Golkar). Puan announced five strong names for the vice presidential candidate accompanying Ganjar, including AHY and Muhaimin, as well as the possibility that the existing names could increase again.

Since the beginning, PKB has joined the Greater Indonesia Awakening (KIR) coalition with Gerindra, while Golkar formed the United Indonesia Coalition (KIB) with PAN and PPP. Recently, PPP has supported Ganjar, so that in de facto, KIB no longer exists.

"Golkar itself is in the midst of turmoil because a number of party elites are trying to remove Airlangga from the position of chairman," he said.

He saw that Golkar had not yet determined the direction of support for the presidential election, while Airlangga's electability always had a position far below. If it continues to drag on, Golkar's electability can further plummet or fail to maintain the top three positions.

This also makes Golkar's bargaining position weaken in the presidential candidate coalition map, which also has an impact on losing the opportunity to get a coattail effect.

In the lower middle class, PAN experienced an increase by achieving 2.4 percent electability, approaching Nasdem 2.5 percent and PPP 2.6 percent.

"PAN is aggressively pushing Erick Thohir as a vice presidential candidate for both Prabowo and Ganjar," he said.

Next there are Perindo 1.7 percent, Gelora 1.1 percent, PBB 0.8 percent, Ummat 0.7 percent and Hanura 0.3 percent. PKN, Garuda, and Labor have zero support, while the rest stated that they did not know / did not answer 22.1 percent.

The Indonesian Polmatrix Survey was conducted from 15 to 21 July 2023 to 2,000 respondents representing 34 provinces. The survey method is multistage random sampling (random graded) with a survey margin of error of eg.2 percent and at a 95 percent confidence level.