Experts Estimate China's COVID-19 Wave Peak Lasts Two-Three Months, Infection Spreads to Rural Areas during Chinese New Year Holidays

Illustration of COVID-19 in China. (Wikimedia Commons/Andrii Makukha)

JAKARTA - Leading Chinese epidemiologist Zeng Guang predicts that the peak of China's COVID-19 wave is expected to last for two to three months, expanding into rural areas where medical resources are relatively scarce.

Infections are expected to spike in rural areas, as hundreds of millions travel to their hometowns for the Lunar New Year holiday, which officially starts on January 21. Before the pandemic, this was the world's largest annual migration of people.

China last month abruptly lifted its strict zero-COVID policy, after mass lockdowns led to protests last November. Last Sunday, China reopened its borders

The sudden lifting of restrictions caused the virus to spread to China's 1.4 billion people, more than a third of whom live in areas where infections are past their peak, according to state media.

But the worst of the outbreak is not over, Zeng Guang, former chief epidemiologist at the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention, warned, according to a report published in local media Caixin on Thursday.

"Our priority focus before was on big cities. It's time to focus on rural areas", Zeng said as quoted by Reuters on January 13.

He further explained that a large number of people in rural areas, whose medical facilities are relatively poor, are left behind, including the elderly, the sick, and the disabled.

Meanwhile, authorities say they are making efforts to increase the supply of antivirus across the country. Molnupiravir from Merck & Co., available in China from Friday.

Previously, the World Health Organization (WHO) this week also warned of the risks emanating from holiday travel.

The UN agency said China did not detail reports of deaths from COVID, although it is now providing more information about the outbreak.

"Since the outbreak of the epidemic, China has been sharing relevant information and data with the international community in an open, transparent, and responsible manner", Foreign Ministry official Wu Xi told reporters.

Health authorities have reported five or fewer deaths a day over the past month, a number that is at odds with the long lines seen at funeral homes and body bags seen leaving hospitals.

It is known, China has not reported data on deaths from COVID since Monday. Officials said in December, going forward they plan to issue monthly updates instead of daily updates.