The Reason Prabowo Subianto's Electability Was Almost Defeated By Ganjar Pranowo

Prabowo Subianto/Photo: Antara

JAKARTA - General chairman of the Gerindra Party, Prabowo Subianto, has been in the first position for the 2024 presidential candidate in recent surveys. Prabowo's superiority is also shown in the results of a poll conducted by the Indonesian Political Indicators survey.

In a simulation of 33 names, Prabowo ranks the highest in the respondents' choice of presidential candidate. Prabowo received 21.9 percent of the electability, followed by Ganjar Pranowo with 19.8 percent in the second position, and Anies Baswedan with 10.5 percent in the third position.

However, it seems that the electability of the Minister of Defense is threatened by Ganjar who is under him. This is because in the 33-name survey simulation, the difference between Prabowo and Ganjar tends to be thin, only 2.1 percent. Not to mention, there is a margin of error of around 2.9 percent.

The potential for Prabowo to be overtaken by Ganjar was also shown in the simulation of 19 names. Prabowo still ranks the highest at 22.4 percent. However, Ganjar's electability rate is getting closer, which is 21.6 percent. The difference is 0.8 percent.

In fact, in the simulation of 7 names, there was a shift in the position of the figure who was chosen the most as a presidential candidate. Ganjar is in the first place with electability of 27.6 percent. Prabowo's position was shifted to second with electability of 27.4 percent.

"If we look at the simulation of 7 names, Ganjar and Prabowo are even. Even with a slight difference of 0.2 percent, Ganjar is above Mr. Prabowo. This means that there are some names that if we take out (in the simulation) they run to Ganjar and other names," said Burhanuddin in the presentation of the survey, quoted on Monday, April 4.

Burhanuddin explained that this position is not profitable for Prabowo. Given, the vote acquisition in the 2019 election was 44.5 percent.

Therefore, if Prabowo does intend to run for president again in the 2024 election but has not yet raised his image to the public, his electability will be increasingly threatened with Ganjar Pranowo. Bearing in mind that Gerindra Party cadres are determined to return to support Prabowo in 2024.

"If it is too far from the public radar, it is also too risky for Mr. Prabowo, unless he has no interest in running again. However, according to Gerindra elites, he is still projected to run as a presidential candidate. So, it is necessary to appear to the public as well, " he added.