JAKARTA - Five weeks into the invasion of Ukraine, Russian troops have been held back by fierce resistance and have not been able to capture major cities, with the latter calling the focus on the complete 'liberation' of the Donbass region.
The latest British intelligence reports show that a number of Russian soldiers in Ukraine have refused to carry out orders, sabotaged their own equipment and accidentally shot down one of their own planes.
The head of Britain's Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ) Jeremy Fleming said President Vladimir Putin had "massively misjudged" the capabilities of Russia's once mighty armed forces, while underestimating the resistance of the Ukrainian people and the resolve of the West, which has punished Moscow with coordinated sanctions.
"Putin has grossly misjudged the situation," Fleming said in a speech at the Australian National University in Canberra, according to a transcript of his remarks.
"We believe Putin's advisers are afraid to tell him the truth," Fleming continued.
Citing new intelligence, Fleming said there was evidence that Russian soldiers had low morale and were poorly equipped.
"We have seen Russian soldiers, lacking weapons and morale, refusing to carry out orders, sabotaging their own equipment and even accidentally shooting down their own planes," Fleming said.
Reuters could not independently confirm GCHQ's analysis.
The GCHQ, which gathers communications from around the world to identify and disrupt threats to the UK, has close ties to the US National Security Service and to Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand intelligence agencies in a consortium called the 'Five Eyes'.
Separately, Russia's Defense Ministry said its armed forces were professional, carrying out their duties in Ukraine with considerable success. They say the West has been spreading lies about the operation, in an attempt to bring down Russia.
Meanwhile, the United States rates Russia as having a failure rate of up to 60 percent for some of its precision-guided missiles, three US officials familiar with the intelligence told Reuters.
Earlier, President Putin was misled by advisers who were too afraid to tell him how bad the war in Ukraine was and how damaging Western sanctions were, US and European officials said. The Kremlin did not immediately comment on this.
President Putin said "special military operations" in Ukraine were necessary because the United States was using Ukraine to threaten Russia and Moscow had to defend itself against the persecution of Russian-speaking people by Ukraine.
As for Ukraine, which says it is battling imperial-style land grabs, insisting Putin's genocidal claims are nonsense.
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Russia says the West has effectively declared economic war on them, causing Moscow to now turn east, move away from Europe and build a partnership with China.
"But there is a risk for both of them (more for China) because they are too close," said Fleming.
"Russia understands that in the long run, China will become stronger militarily and economically. Some of their interests are in conflict; Russia could be knocked out of the equation," Fleming said.
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