TBRC Survey: Airlangga Hartarto Is The Strongest Candidate And Golkar Will Win If Elections Are Held Today

Airlangga Hartarto/Photo: Public Relations of the Coordinating Ministry for the Economy

SALATIGA - The East West Research Center Survey Institute (TBRC) released the results of a survey of public perceptions of political party figures who have the potential to replace President Joko Widodo in the upcoming 2024 election.

As a result, of the nine general chairpersons of political parties who have seats in the Senayan parliament, the name of the DPP General Chairperson of the Golkar Party, Airlangga Hartarto, occupies the top position.

TBRC Executive Director Yohanes Romeo said, as many as 2,200 respondents from 34 provinces in Indonesia mentioned Airlangga's name to be chosen as a presidential candidate in 2024.

According to Yohanes, this is natural because the public understands that the minimum requirement for presidential candidacy is only political parties that meet a minimum of 20 percent which can then nominate presidential candidates.

"The General Chairperson of the Golkar Party has been elected the most, with 29.8 percent being elected. Then in second place is the Gerindra Chairman Prabowo Subianto who was elected as much as 22.8 percent," said Yohanes in the release of his survey, Tuesday, March 22.

Yohanes added that under Prabowo's name, Megawati Soekarnoputri's PDIP chairman appeared with 10.1 percent. Followed by the chairman of the Democrats Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (4.6 percent) and the chairman of the PKB Muhaimin Iskandar (4.4 percent).

Airlangga's name also emerged as the presidential candidate with the highest electability in the two simulations conducted in the TBRC survey. Namely, through simulation of spontaneous questions and closed questions.

In the simulation of spontaneous questions, Airlangga was chosen by 13.7 percent of the respondents. In second place, Prabowo's name was chosen with 13.6 percent, followed by Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo with 7.8 percent.

In the closed-choice simulation of 17 names, Airlangga Hartarto received the most support at 20.2 percent. In second place, Prabowo Subianto received the most support with 14.6 percent, followed by Ganjar Prabowo with 9.8 percent, Andika Perkasa with 6.40 percent.

Yohanes said that Airlangga's high level of electability correlates with his position as Coordinating Minister for the Economy and the level of public satisfaction with the current performance of the Jokowi-Ma'ruf government.

"Especially with regard to the economy, the public shows a very high level of public satisfaction indicator of up to 81.2 percent for economic problems," said Yohanes.

In addition, Airlangga's high electability of all the names of potential presidential candidates was also followed by the skyrocketing electability of the Golkar Party.

In the simulation of spontaneous questions, the Golkar Party was chosen by 13.8 percent of the respondents. Gerindra Party occupies the second position with 11.6 percent. PDIP, which won the 2019 general election, had to fall in third with 11.4 percent.

Golkar also ranks at the top of the questions presented in the list of selected political party questionnaires if elections are held during the survey. Golkar won 17.4 percent, followed by Gerindra with 14.9 percent, and PDIP with 14.7 percent.

Yohanes admitted that this survey was held from March 2 to 17, 2022. The survey used a multistage random sampling method, with a 95 percent confidence level and a margin of error of -/+ 2.1 percent.