JAKARTA - A cheering crowd cheered the election victory of Guinea-Bissau President Umaro Sissoco Embalo in 2020, but his opponents accused him of fraud. When he was sworn in, before the Supreme Court ratified the vote, critics called it a coup.
It is a term well-known to Guinea-Bissau politicians, this West African nation of 1.6 million people has experienced nine coups or attempted coups since gaining independence from Portugal in 1974. Only one democratically elected president has served a full term.
Despite some of the fragile alliances that helped President Embalo weather the initial political storm, he has never ignored the questions surrounding his victory.
On Tuesday, while President Embalo, 49, was chairing an extraordinary Cabinet meeting in the capital Bissau, heavy gunfire was heard nearby. For hours, Embalo's whereabouts or well-being could not be confirmed, raising fears that a coup attempt was underway.
Overthrow attempts appear to have stalled. President Embalo posted a photo on Facebook late Tuesday showing him sitting with advisers and men in military uniform.
"The situation is under the control of the government," reads a Twitter post from an account that has not been verified in his name, citing Reuters February 2.
So far, little is known about what happened the previous day. It was not clear who opened fire or if anyone was killed.
Diplomats and security sources had previously feared that President Embalo was the latest target in a series of military takeovers to hit the region in the past 18 months, including in Mali, Chad, Guinea, and just last week, Burkina Faso.
The coup has undermined democratic progress since the 1990s helping the region shed its reputation as a "coup belt".
"It seems increasingly difficult to resist the idea of coup contagion, a coup in one place inspiring them in another, following the events of the past year," said Eric Humphery-Smith, Africa analyst at risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft.
President Embalo, a former prime minister and former army general, served as prime minister under Jose Mario Vaz from 2016 to 2018.
He attended the Spanish National Defense Center and completed courses in leadership and political science in Portugal, the United States, and Japan. As president, he has sought closer political ties with Portugal and urged the country to unite.
"I call for unity, reconciliation, and harmony for a peaceful life in Guinea-Bissau," Embalo said after his victory was first announced by the national election commission in January 2020.
But stabilizing Guinea-Bissau has been an uphill task from the start. After he was elected, the opposition-run parliament formed a rival interim president.
Its scattered Atlantic islands, the maze of mangroves, and irregular waters are a draw for tourists, but also cocaine smugglers on their way from South America to Europe.
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Its political system, in which a majority party or coalition appoints the government but the president has the power to remove it under certain circumstances, has been beset by political deadlock and infighting in the past.
Its fragile economy often finds itself held hostage to volatile cashew prices, the main source of income for more than two-thirds of households.
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