Indonesia Is Safe From A 2023 Recession, But Economic Growth Will Slow Down

JAKARTA - Chief Economist of PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BRI) Anton Hendranata ensured that Indonesia can survive amid the threat of recession in the United States (US) and several other countries.

He said, Indonesia is quite far from the epicenter of the world economic recession, because the national economy is strongly supported by domestic demand.

"I believe that Indonesia will not go into a recession, Indonesia is far from the epicenter of a recession," said Anton at the 72nd FEB UI Anniversary Seminar organized by the Management Institute (LM) FEB UI, as quoted by Antara, Wednesday, November 9.

In addition, Indonesia's financial and foreign exchange (forex) markets currently tend to be more robust from external shocks than in previous years.

"Indonesia's recession probability is only 2 percent in 2023, if the US goes into a recession," said Anton.

However, he did not deny that Indonesia's economic growth will slow down in 2023 in line with the uncertainty at the global level, plus the possibility of a recession in the US.

He estimates that the Indonesian economy will grow in the range of 4.8-5.4 percent year on year (yoy) if the US is not in crisis, and 4.4-5.0 percent yoy if the US is in crisis.

"We estimate that the Indonesian economy will grow at a lower limit of 4.4 percent and an upper limit of 5 percent next year (2023)," said Anton.

Thus, according to him, Indonesia should be able to take advantage of the momentum next year, where the Indonesian economy is estimated to still grow at a time when various countries are predicted to experience a recession.

He continued that the recession that will occur in the US later, will initially be followed by developed countries in Europe, then followed by various developing countries which are included in the epicenter.

"Developing countries, even tend to avoid a recession," said Anton.