Avoid Justification Of Survey Results In The 2024 Presidential Election

Illustration Of Images By Ilham Andri Winarko VOI

The General Election Commission (KPU) officially appointed three pairs of presidential and vice presidential candidates for the 2024 Presidential Election (Pilpres) on November 13. The pairs are Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar (number 1), Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka ( serial number 2), and Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD ( serial number 3).

After the official determination from the KPU, the survey institute released the results of their respective partners' electability surveys. Until this writing, there were seven survey results released in November. The following are the results of the survey:

1. Survey of the National Survey Institute (LSN) (5-12 November 2023)

2.Cipta Research & Consulting (ICRC) (12-16 November 2023) Survey of Prabowo-Gibran Ideas: 37.3% Of Ganjar-Mahfud: 33.5% of Anies-Cak Imin: 24.1%

3. Survey of the Indonesian Voters Institute (LPI) (9-13 November 2023)

4. Survey of the Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI) Denny JA (6-13 November 2023)

5. Indonesian Political Opinion Survey (IPO) (10-17 November 2023)private Prabowo-Gibran: 36.2% good luck Anies-Muhaimin: 34.1% good luck Ganjar-Mahfud: 27.1%

6. Survey of the Indonesian Voters Institute (LPI) (9-13 November 2023)

7. Political Weather Station (PWS) Survey (1-8 November 2023)

Every Paslon Claims Superior, Responds To The Results Of The 2024 Presidential Election Survey

What are the views of the three candidate pairs on the survey results that tend to lead Prabowo-Gibran in the 2024 presidential election? Anies Baswedan, presidential candidate number 1, expressed his appreciation for AMIN's increased electability in several recent surveys, although not yet ranked first. He saw the increase as a result of public awareness of the need for change.

Anies stated, "We believe that more and more people will realize that we need change." He highlighted the concept of change that Nasdem has been trying to do since he was declared a candidate for president.

"When last year we talked about changes, many asked what we want to change now, we'll see how the job is, how basic needs are, how it costs education, how it costs health, maybe we can't solve all problems within five years," said Anies last Thursday, November 23.

From the candidate pair number 2, Prabowo-Gibran, the National Campaign Team (TKN) of the Forward Indonesia Coalition is optimistic about the candidate pair victory he carries. Sufmi Dasco Ahmad, Chairman of the TKN Strategic Coordinator, emphasized that the survey results showed that Prabowo-Gibran did not need to use fraudulent methods to win. He noted Prabowo's increased electability before pairing with Gibran, thanks to political efforts and a strong approach to the people.

Dasco stated, "After pairing up with Mas Gibran, the electability survey of the two pairs of presidential and vice presidential candidates continues to increase. This proves that public acceptance of the two is getting better."

Meanwhile, Ganjar Pranowo, presidential candidate number 3, is reluctant to think too much about the results of the survey that has been released. The focus is on continuing to work and getting closer to the community. Even though there are survey results that place him in the top position, Ganjar prefers to stay focused on performance and direct interaction with the community.

Regarding electability, Ganjar stated, "I am sent the results of the survey. My survey is number one." According to him, the institution that places himself in the first position is the Indonesian Voters Institute. He admitted that the results of the survey were only obtained yesterday. The name is the Indonesian Voters Institute. Have you read it yet? Just yesterday and the latest. I am number one, "explained Ganjar Saturday, November 18.

The Results Of The 2024 Presidential Election Survey Should Not Be Absorbed

What is the public response, especially voters, to the results of various survey institutions? Siti Zuhro, a political observer from BRIN, highlighted the need for a declaration from a survey institute, whether they are independent or as political consultants. This is important to provide clarity regarding who is the focus of the institution's performance.

He explained that political consultants have the task and function of providing suggestions to win contests in the context of elections. While the survey institute, the user is a candidate or a winning team. This is something that must be distinguished. But in Indonesia it is usually concurrently," he said, Monday, November 27. According to Zuhiro, survey institutions that have concurrent roles need to declare their status so that the public can have clear preferences. This is considered as a literacy and education step for the community so as not to consume survey results rawly, which has the potential to influence the perception of the results of the presidential election. Thus, the public has a preference for a survey institution as well as avoiding public lies,' he explained.

Zuhro emphasized that survey institutions must have empathy for people who still need education. Elections are not only about power struggles, but also provide lessons to the public.

Muhammad Romahurmuziy, Chairman of the PPP Party Advisory Council, agrees that there is nothing wrong in releasing the results of the candidate pair electability survey ahead of the 2024 presidential election. However, he also hopes that the survey institute can declare which users are to avoid the opinion that one candidate is almost certain to win the presidential election.

Romi emphasized that the survey results should not be used as the main reference in the election, but only as reading material. He believes that Indonesian voters are now intelligent and will not vote based solely on the results of the survey when using their voting rights on February 14.

"If I personally choose not to swallow the survey results, either it is the one who excels the number 1, 2 or 3. As reading material, it can be done, but not to be used as a reference. This must be understood by the public or voters. Don't let the voters remember the results of the survey, not vote based on conscience," he said, Monday, November 27.