JAKARTA - Passengers are usually told there is no need to worry about turbulence. However, as SQ321 flights from Singapore showed on Tuesday, May 21, turbulence could be fatal. Geoff Kitchen, a 73-year-old British man, died of an alleged heart attack. Meanwhile, several other passengers suffered serious injuries due to the severe turbulence the plane experienced at an altitude of about 37,000 feet.
Passengers were reportedly thrown to the point of sleeping, fainting, and leaving the cabin in a 'blood puddle' as the plane suddenly fell about 6,000 feet in a matter of minutes.
Scientists are now warning that climate change exacerbates turbulence in aircraft, causing sudden and violent movements that increase the risk of death.
Wali Smith, a turbulence researcher from the department of meteorology at the University of Reading, explained to MailOnline that global warming makes the jet flow the narrow fast air current the plane uses to accelerate to become more 'chaotic'.
"The amount of turbulence is closely related to the speed and speed of the jet flow. As the jet speed increases, the instability of the jet increases, and the air flow becomes more chaotic, leading to more turbulence," Smith said.
It is estimated that certain types of turbulence called clear-water turbulence (CAT) affect SQ321 flights. CAT is difficult to predict beforehand because it cannot be observed using remote sensing methods and is challenging for flight meteorologists to predict before it occurs.
"Clear turbulent water (CAT) results from wind friction and has a strong association with jet flow," said Dr. Smith. Global warming causes rapid heating of the lowest layers of the atmosphere we live in, the troposphere, which strengthens the vertical temperature gradient and causes the jet flow to become stronger and more unstable.
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Researchers from the University of Reading found that severe turbulence had increased by 55 percent over four decades. In a study published last year, they analyzed CAT trends globally between 1979 and 2020 and found strong evidence of a large increase in CATs affecting aircraft at cruising altitudes.
At a certain point above the North Atlantic, the total annual duration of heavy turbulence increased by 55 percent from 17.7 hours in 1979 to 27.4 hours in 2020. Turbulence was increasing by 37 percent from 70.0 to 96.1 hours, and light turbulence increased by 17 percent from 466.5 to 546.8 hours.
Although the US and the North Atlantic have experienced the largest increase, other busy flight routes in Europe, the Middle East, and the South Atlantic have also experienced a significant increase in turbulence. Larger CAT increases occur in the northern hemisphere than the southern hemisphere, which requires further research.
According to the research team, their study provides the best evidence that clear air turbulent has increased in recent decades, in line with the increase in global warming.
Meanwhile, a 2017 study predicts that climate change will significantly increase the number of severe turbulence worldwide at a time between 2050 and 2080.
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