More Than Half Of Cities In The US Are At Risk Of Becoming A Dead City By 2100

Texas City, a city that continues to grow but is expected to decline in population. (photo: dock. pexels)

A study from the University of Illinois Chicago said that more than half of the nearly 25,000 cities in the United States could become a dead city by 2100.

The researchers found that in a moderate scenario, about half of these cities could lose up to a quarter of their population by the end of the century.

If birth rates continue to decline and exodus from cities get worse, up to two-thirds of these cities could see a significant decline in their population.

The research team warned that "implicities of this large population drop will bring tremendous challenges, which may cause disruption in basic services such as transport, clean water, electricity, and internet access" as cities shrink and the population age.

High tax trends and living expenses associated with busy metropolitan cities have pushed people away from the city for decades, the trend of this data shows that it has been exacerbated during the Covid-19 pandemic when companies allow employees to work from home.

According to the study's authors, population reductions will be felt stronger in the Northeast andappropriated Regions than in the Southern and Western Regions, where Hawaii and the District of Columbia are predicted not to experience any loss of population at all.

US Census data shows that the population has increased since the 17th century - before the "United States" even existed. But US census data also suggest that the country as a whole will experience a population decline by 2080, according to the findings of this new study.

This latest study uses existing trends from the last 20 years to predict how the next 80 years will look. The research team is considering changing the city's population from 2000 to 2010, 2010 to 2020, and 2000 to 2010, while accounting for changes in the average annual population of each city from 2000 to 2020.

They categorize cities with an annual decline of five percent or higher as cities experiencing severe depopulation, from one to percent as cities experiencing moderate depopulation, and from 0 to 1 percent as cities experiencing slow depopulation.

One of their models suggests that half of the 24,295 cities are expected to see a population of about 12 to 23 percent by the end of the century in the most likely scenario. More extreme estimates estimate the number of cities that have decreased could reach 64 percent.

In the future, the depopulation rate will be higher in the Northeast region and the equator than in the Southern and Western Regions, showing data on this study. More than 80 percent of rural cities in the Northeast could lose their population by 2100, according to intermediate estimates. About 77 percent of urban cities in the region will grow.

Medium estimates also predict most rural cities in the Southern Region will lose their population, while all urban cities will get populations. It is difficult to predict how the population growth trend will be changed by uncertain future effects: job market changes, sea level rise, climate change, immigration, new laws, and other factors that can lead people to move to or away from a city.

According to the researchers, in the coming decades, there will be cities or states in an area that do not follow regional trends. For example, the southern coast of California may lose population, but the north coast may get population. Although Texas and Utah are currently developing, many cities in each of these states will experience substantial population loss by the end of the century, the researchers concluded.

Historically, most of the depopulation trends have hit rural areas as youth move to cities, leaving an aging population - people who do not have children. And this new study supports this trend. Looking at the population density - the number of people living in a certain area - reveals that cities experiencing severe depopulation tend to have a low population density.

The researchers also saw how income was related to population trends. They found that cities in the Northeast region and theamides with lower median household income were more likely to depopulate over time.