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JAKARTA - Predicting who will win any sporting event is always interesting, especially since the European Cup is only lost to the World Cup.

Antara trying to analyze the chances of the two countries winning Euro 2020 based on three parameters; statistics on the appearance of the two teams during Euro 2020, data on the meeting of the two teams, match venue factors and luck that are often inseparable from sports competitions.

Statistics for Euro 2020

Italy and England's journey to the Euro 2020 final is a little different, although both are unbeaten before reaching the final.

England have won five times and drawn 1, on the other hand, Italy has always won, even though in the semifinals it was decided on penalties. Azzurri scored a total of 12 goals, while the Three Lions 10 goals. For that, Italy is superior. So, let's say Italy leads 1-0.

Italy also took the lead in scoring chances, releasing 108 chances of which 58 were on target, including 6 on goal and 28 blocked. While England released a total of 58 goal attempts, 33 of which were on target, including 3 hitting the goal and 8 being countered by the opponent.

But British effectiveness is better. Three Lions 57 percent, while the Azzurri 53 percent. In conclusion, the position of the potential to win is 1-1.

Next is ball possession and attack intensity. In the first six matches of Euro 2020, from the group stage to the semifinals, Italy was the team that put more pressure on the opponent than England.

Italy released 5,239 passes of which 4,688 were completed or had an 89 percent pass effectiveness. England almost halved because of releasing 2,389 passes of which 2,984 were completed or had an effectiveness of 88 percent.

Italy also launched 432 attacks which included 13 assists and 47 corners. In contrast, England unleashed 256 attacks of which 24 were corner kicks and 9 assists.

For this measure, Italy is above England so that the position becomes 2-1 for Italy.

But in defense, England is superior in guarding the defense area. This was corroborated by conceding just one goal and five clean sheets, while Italy conceded three goals and kept three clean sheets.

The details are Italy 249 times the ball back, while England 222. However, for tackles, England is more effective because it won 33 tackles from a total of 53 total made or has an effectiveness rate of 62 percent.

In contrast Italy made 74 tackles of which 21 were successful or only 28 percent. This means that England are better at tackling, even above Italy in terms of blocking the ball from the defense area. England made 120 sweeps, while Italy 86.

England also made 11 saves, while Italy made 9 saves. There are also fewer violations committed by England, but more violations by England than Italy. This means, the opponent is more difficult to get the ball from English players than Italy.

In conclusion, England is more solid than Italy. Therefore the score becomes 2-2. In essence, England's efficiency can compensate for Italy's offensive performance.

The meeting of the two teams

The two teams have met 27 times. In total, Italy won 11 times, while England won 8 times, while the other 8 matches were drawn.

England have won more friendlies with five wins, while Italy won four. But in a competitive match, Italy is difficult to beat England.

In their four meetings in the World Cup and European Cup finals, all of them have been won by Italy.

Details, 1-0 in the Euro 1980 group stage in Italy, 2-1 in the 1990 World Cup third place match in Italy, 4-2 on penalties in the Euro 2012 quarter-finals in Ukraine, and 2-1 in the group stage of the 2014 World Cup. in Brazil.

Italy is also superior in World Cup and European Cup qualifying matches. Here, the two countries have met four times. Italy won three times, while the other ended in a draw.

In details, Italy won 2-0 at the Stadio Olimpico on 17 November 1976 in a 1978 World Cup qualifier, and then at Wembley Stadium in the second meeting on 16 November 1977, also 2-0.

Italy again won at Wembley on 12 February 1997 with a score of 1-0 in the 1998 World Cup qualifying match, but in the second meeting at the Stadio Olimpico the draw was 0-0.

In conclusion, Italy has a much better record. For that, the score changed to 3-2 for Italy.

Wembley Factor

Italy have won twice against England at Wembley in World Cup and European Cup qualifiers in 1977 and 1998. But Italy has never met England at Wembley in the finals of either the 1966 World Cup or the 1996 European Cup, both of which were hosted by England.

If at the 1966 World Cup England maximized the benefits as host by winning this tournament, then in Euro 1996 England were tackled by Germany in the quarter-finals on penalties.

However, in open matches or without penalties, including against Germany at Euro 1996, England are unbeaten at Wembley. Including Euro 2020, England's record at Wembley is 12 wins and 5 draws.

England went on to penalties twice at Wembley, each in the last 16 of Euro 1996 when they beat France and the quarter-finals when they lost to Germany.

The most impressive record is of course the 1966 World Cup when England won five of their 6 finals matches which all came through open matches, including thrashing Germany 4-2 via extra time after 90 minutes of playing 2-2.

However, England's record in the 1996 European Cup was nothing special because only two wins and three draws, including two matches that ended in penalty shootouts against Spain and Germany.

However, England's journey in Euro 2020 was much better than Euro 1996, even matching the 1996 World Cup because they both scored one draw and five wins. Four of those wins came at Wembley.

Complete record at the 1966 World Cup was a 0-0 draw against Uruguay, and wins against Mexico, France, Argentina, Portugal and Germany. Whereas in the 1996 European Cup which all at Wembley was a 1-1 draw against Switzerland, won over Scotland and the Netherlands in the group stage, then won on penalties against Spain and lost on penalties against Germany.

In Euro 2020, England's record is a 1-0 win over Croatia, a 0-0 draw against Scotland, and a 1-0 win against the Czechs in the group stage. Then beat Germany 2-0, Ukraine 4-0 and Denmark 2-1 in the knockout stages. Four wins came at Wembley.

In addition, Gareth's England squad have won 15 of their last 17 matches at Wembley in all competitions scoring 46 goals and five goals.

With a superior record at Wembley, England should be able to overcome Italy. So, now the position of the potential to win is 3-3.

But Italy can hold on to the record that of the 16 Euro hosts, only three have won when they hosted them, namely Spain in 1964, Italy in 1968 but failed in 1980, and France in 1984 but failed in 2016.

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French anomaly factor

At the 2018 World Cup in Russia, France won this tournament with 6 wins and one loss. Both England and Italy were unbeaten before the Euro 2020 final.

When they won the 2018 World Cup, France's average possession was 48 percent and became the 25th-placed team out of 32 teams that rarely approached the opponent's penalty area.

France are also the fifth-lowest team in passing and fifth-lowest in the field, as well as having an average of six shots on goal per game or the second-lowest.

But France had a solid defense and were effective on the counter-attack, and clinically completed the chances. France were also so effective at clearing set pieces that their centre-back was decisive in the quarter-finals and semi-finals.

France's situation may be more suited to England's, given that England are also less offensive than Italy, but England are as solid defensively as France. The indicator can be seen from just conceding one goal and five clean sheets.

One more thing that cannot be ignored is luck. In addition to the audience factor that can be very decisive, England is also somewhat more protected by Dewi Fortuna than Italy. Controversial penalties and own goals against Denmark are examples.

Therefore, England have a better chance of winning the Euro 2020 final.

So, winning the European Cup for the first time to overtake Spain, France, Germany and Italy as the countries that won both the World Cup and the European Cup, may no longer be impossible for England.

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Tag: euro 2020

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