Prediction Of Group D Euro 2024: French Lapang Street, Followed By The Netherlands

France will be walking in Group D (photo: x @FrenchTeam ·)

The star-studded French team is the main favorite in Group D. Didier Deschamps' squad is Opta's second favorite supercomputer to win Euro 2024 (19.1%) and hopes to compete for the title when the tournament ends in mid-July.

The French golden generation has now reached the finals in three of their last four major tournaments and are eager to add another trophy after the 2018 World Cup win.

With a chance of 30.4%, France has a chance of nearly one in three to reach the final again, losing only to England (31.1%).

In terms of their chances in Group D, the road seems smooth. They had a 92.9% chance to qualify for the last 16 and 57.9% to do so as group winners.

France has a dominant head-to-head record against all opponents in Group D, including the Netherlands, which they beat twice convincingly in their qualifying campaign.

Kylian Mbappe performed brilliantly in qualifying, scoring nine goals and providing five assists, only Romelu Lukaku (15) was involved in more goals. Mbappe is still looking for his first goal in the European Cup, but if he starts well, France will be hard to beat.

The Netherlands hopes to do the same. With a 76.2% chance to qualify for the round of 16, they are the second favorite in Group D.

The European Cup in Germany will bring back many fond memories for Dutch supporters. Oranje won the last tournament exclusively in Germany in 1988, beating the Soviet Union in the final (2-0). The current manager, Ronald Koeman, was part of the Dutch team at the time and he was one of only two managers at Euro 2024 who had won the tournament as a player (with Deschamps).

Koeman's team had a 5.1% chance of winning their second European Championship title according to the OPTA supercomputer, but perhaps a more realistic expectation was coming out in the quarter-finals. That was a result in 45.8% of our tournament simulations.

Austria and Poland are predicted to compete for third place in the group. Less than 2% separate the two teams in our projection for third-placed Austria 32.5%, Poland 30.9% and both teams have a healthy chance of qualifying for the last 16, especially given that there are four 'best third-placed teams' up for grabs.

Austria recorded their best achievement in the European Cup which was delayed in 2021, reaching the last 16 before being beaten by the Italian champions. Austria has a 51.1% chance of reaching that stage again, and 24.3% chance of reaching the quarter-finals.

Ralf Rangnick is on the bench for them now and, despite rumors of interest from Bayern Munich this summer, he recently affirmed his commitment to the Austrian national team.

In the real Red Bull style, Rangnick put pressure on his team aggressively and full of energy from the front. Austria has the lowest PPDA (number of feedback allowed per defensive action) from any team during the Euro 2024 qualifiers, allowing 8.3 opposing passes for any defensive action, while only Spain (13.0) has more high turnover averages per game than their 11.9.

Poland qualified for Euro 2024 after beating Wales on penalties in the play-offs, despite not recording a single shot on target in 120 minutes.

Poland is very good in qualifying for the European Cup they are one of only eight countries that have qualified for the last five tournaments but they were not good enough when they arrived there. Poland, won only two of the 14 Euro (D7 L5) matches in their history. Their 14% winning ratio is the second lowest of any country to play 10+ matches, only in front of Romania (6%, 1 win in 16).

This may be the last major tournament for Poland's all-time top scorer, Robert Lewandowski. This Barcelona player is Poland's most appearance (11) and the top scorer (5) in the European Cup.

With a 41.8% chance, Poland's most likely position in the group is fourth, but Matchday 2's match with Austria may determine who will qualify for the last 16 of them.