Survey Results: Prabowo, Ganjar And Anies Compete In The 2024 Presidential Election

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JAKARTA - The names of the three most popular presidential candidates are competing closely in the results of the latest survey of Indonesian Political Parameters.

Among them, Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, and DKI Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan.

In the simulation of selecting 15 names, 10 names to 5 names, the three are always in the top 3. Meanwhile, if they are contested in the simulation of the top 3 presidential candidates in the 2024 presidential election, Prabowo wins with a score of 24.8 percent.

Followed by Ganjar with 22.1 percent and Anies with 20.9 percent. While 32.2 percent answered doubtfully or did not want to answer.

"When it has been formulated into the top three, the electability gap between these candidates is getting thinner and closer", said Parameter Executive Director Adi Prayitno in his survey presentation, Saturday, June 5.

Territorially, Prabowo has a relatively even distribution of voters. Namely with the concentration of voters in BANJABAR (Banten, DKI Jakarta, West Java) with 31.0 percent and Sumatra 28.9 percent.

While Ganjar looks very dominant in JATEJAYA (Central Java, East Java, Yogyakarta) with 37.9 percent. While other areas are still below 15.0 percent.

“Ganjar is only concentrated in several key areas, especially in Central Java. Because Central Java is a 'bull cage' and Ganjar is a PDIP cadre,” said Adi.

Then, the distribution of Anies voters is relatively similar to Prabowo. Namely with the concentration of votes in the BANJABAR area of 28.4 percent and Sumatra 19.9 percent.

This survey was conducted on a sample of 1,200 respondents. Taken by simple random sampling method from 6,000 telephone numbers selected randomly from the existing sample frame from face-to-face interviews in the period September 2017-December 2020, and adjusted for the proportion of the population and gender.

The survey's margin of error is +- 2.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.

Data collection was carried out on 23-28 May 2021, using the telepolling method using a questionnaire conducted by trained surveyors.