JAKARTA - The Jakarta, Bogor, Depok, Tangerang, and Bekasi (Jabodetabek) regions are predicted to enter the dry season in April to May 2026 as the wind pattern shifts, bringing drier air masses from Australia. The prediction was delivered by the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency in the 2026 dry season outlook.
BMKG recorded that as many as 114 seasonal zones (ZOM) or about 16.3 percent of Indonesia's territory are expected to begin entering the dry season in April 2026. The seasonal zone is a division of the region used by BMKG to describe areas that have a relatively similar pattern of rainy and dry seasons.
Through this system, BMKG can monitor and predict the beginning to the peak of the season more accurately in various regions of Indonesia.
Several regions that are expected to enter the dry season earlier in April 2026 include the northern coast of western Java, most of Central Java, most of East Java, as well as the western and eastern Nusa Tenggara regions. In addition, a small part of Kalimantan and Sulawesi is also predicted to begin experiencing drought conditions during that period.
The coastal area of western Java also includes part of the Jabodetabek metropolitan area, so that the Jakarta area and its surroundings are expected to begin to experience a decrease in rainfall from April to May 2026.
Deputy Head of Climatology at the BMKG, Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, explained that the change in season was influenced by the shift in the monsoon winds that brought drier air masses from Australia to Indonesia.
In addition to the areas that began to experience drought in April, a number of other areas in Indonesia are expected to follow suit and enter the dry season in May to June 2026.
BMKG noted that in May 2026 there were around 184 ZOM or 26.3 percent of Indonesia's territory which is estimated to start experiencing the dry season. Meanwhile, in June 2026 there were around 163 ZOM or 23.3 percent of the territory which is also predicted to enter the same period.
If viewed as a whole, as many as 325 ZOM or about 46.5 percent of Indonesia's territory is estimated to experience the beginning of the dry season faster than normal conditions. Meanwhile, around 173 ZOM or 24.7 percent of the territory is estimated to experience drought according to normal time, and around 72 ZOM or 10.3 percent of the territory is predicted to experience drought that comes later.
BMKG also estimates that the peak of the dry season in most parts of Indonesia will occur in August 2026. Based on BMKG's analysis, around 429 ZOM or 61.4 percent of Indonesia's territory is predicted to be in the peak phase of drought in that month.
In detail, the peak of drought is estimated to occur in July in around 12.6 percent of Indonesia's territory, then in August in around 61.4 percent of the territory, and in September in around 14.3 percent of the territory.
In addition to arriving early in a number of regions, the nature of the dry season in 2026 is also predicted to be drier than normal conditions.
BMKG recorded as many as 451 ZOM or about 64.5 percent of Indonesia's territory has the potential to experience drought with rainfall below normal. Meanwhile, around 245 ZOM or 35.1 percent of the area is estimated to still be in the normal category, and only around three ZOM or 0.4 percent of the area is predicted to experience drought with rainfall above normal.
With this condition, the duration of the dry season in around 57.2 percent of Indonesia is expected to last longer than the climatological average.
BMKG appeals to local governments, related ministries, and the public to increase preparedness early on to anticipate various potential impacts of the dry season, such as drought, air quality decline, and increased forest and land fire risks.
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