BRIN Estimates A Big Tsunami Will Hit South Java In 200 Years

Illustration of high waves or tsunamis meets the mainland. (Unsplash-Willian Justen de Vasconcellos)

JAKARTA - The National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) estimates that the potential for a large tsunami to repeat in the southern region of Java could occur in the next 200 years.

Researcher for Intermediate Research at the BRIN Center for Geological Disaster Research, Purna Sulastya Putra, said the estimate was based on a disaster repeat pattern recorded from the results of geological research.

He explained, from the findings in the field and scientific calculations, tsunami repeats with a magnitude of 9 or more in the area have intervals of around 600 to 800 years.

"The last big tsunami incident in southern Java occurred around the 1500s, and we took an average interval of 600 years, so mathematically the next one could occur in about 200 years," he said when met in Jakarta, Wednesday, August 6, was confiscated by Antara.

Although it cannot predict the exact time of the incident, according to him, the pattern of the repetition interval can still be a scientific basis for building a more anticipatory mitigation system.

Purna explained that the large tsunamis in southern Java were recorded around 400, 1,000, and 1,800 years ago.

The findings were obtained based on traces of ancient tsunami deposits found from the results of research in various locations, such as along the coasts of Lebak, Pangandaran, Kebumen, Gunung Kidul, and Lumajang.

"We are still keeping track of evidence of the incident about 1,000 years ago at more points in order to ensure its repeat pattern. However, temporary indications show a fairly consistent repeat cycle," he said.

For this research, Purna hopes that the government and the community will begin to take into account these risks in regional development policies and arrangement, especially in the southern coastal areas, which are now developing economically and infrastructure.

He said that with the estimated population of more than 30 million people would be exposed in the southern coastal area of Java by 2030, this threat needs serious attention.