Trend 3 Of The Jakarta Gubernatorial Election Survey: Pramono-Rano Crawls Slowly, Yellow Light Makes RK-Suswono

ILLUSTRATION OF DOK VOI

JAKARTA - The Charta Politica survey institute released the results of a poll on the electability of the three pairs of candidates for Governor-Deputy Governor of Jakarta in the 2024 Pilkada. Charta Politica mapped the electability trend of the three candidate pairs with the previous two surveys.

In the results of a poll by the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) conducted on September 6-9, Ridwan Kamil-Suswono had 51.8 percent electability, Pramono Anung-Rano Karno 28.4 percent, and Dharma Pongrekun-Kun Wardana 3.2 percent.

Meanwhile, in the Poltracking survey which was held on September 9-15, RK-Suswono received 47.5 percent electability, Pramono-Rano 31.5 percent, while Dharma-Kun 5.1 percent.

Then in the results of the Charta Politica survey which was held on September 19-24, the electability of RK-Suswono was 48.3 percent, Pramono-Rano 36.5 percent, while Dharma-Kun 5.6 percent.

Charta Politica Executive Director Yunarto Wijaya explained, if you look at the electability of the three survey results, there is a downward trend in the electability of the RK-Suswono pair in two weeks.

"Kang Emil and Pak Suswono have a bit moved away from the safe figure which is above 50 percent. So, this is a record for Kang Emil, yellow lights for timses," Yunarto said in a virtual survey presentation, Thursday, October 3.

Meanwhile, from the trend, Pramono-Rano's electability tends to creep slowly even though it has not followed the electability number of the couple promoted by KIM Plus.

"Pramono Anung and Rano Karno experienced a linear increase process in a time difference of about 2 weeks from the first survey at 28.4 percent, then it rose now at 36.5 percent," Yunarto explained.

"So it can be seen that there will be quite a tight fight. At least two pairs are considered to have the opportunity for about 52 days remaining to get a 1 round win threshold," he added.

From this condition, Yunarto assessed that there is a chance that the constellation of the Jakarta gubernatorial election will change if you see the electability trend of the candidate pairs.

This is because this condition also occurred in the 2012 DKI Jakarta Pilkada, where Fauzi Bowo-Nachrowi Ramli had outperformed the survey results, but Joko Widodo-Basuki Tjahaja Purnama won the Pilkada.

Likewise with the 2017 DKI Pilgub. In the survey results before the election, Ahok's satisfaction figure as the Governor of Jakarta was above 80 percent. However, Anies Baswedan was elected governor of DKI peridoe 2017-2022.

Pramono-Rano, according to Yunarto, had a chance to win the gubernatorial election. "The only question is whether the time is enough or not to catch up and the space is actually still very large because especially for Mas Pram, the introduction figure is only 59 percent," he explained.

For information, this survey was conducted in the period 19-24 September 2024 with a total sample of 1,200 respondents who are residents of DKI Jakarta aged over 17 years or married.

The withdrawal of respondents was obtained through a multistage random sampling technique with a margin of error of up to 2.83 percent and a confidence level of 95 percent with the assumption of simple random sampling.