Mercy Kegou Unggungli Incumbent Mesak Magai In The Nabire Pilkada Survey

ILLUSTRATION OF DOK VOI

JAKARTA - The Indonesian Election Study Institute (LKPI) released the results of a survey related to the preference of the Nabire people, Papua for candidates for regents in the 2024 Pilkada.

As a result, a member of the Nabire DPRD, Mercy Kegou, defeated the incumbent Nabire Regent, Mesak Magai.

"The respondents' top of mind results show a great opportunity for incumbent regent challengers. In which the Mesak Magai electability rate as incumbent was only chosen by 21.3 percent, losing to the Chairman of Commission A of the Nabire DPRD Mercy Kegou who was chosen as 27.1 percent," said LKPI Executive Director, Togu Lubis in a survey release, Monday, August 5.

Then in third place, continued Togu, Hugo Martinus Karubaba received an electability rate of 18.1 percent, fourth Ismail Djamaluddin 7.3 percent, fifth Evan Ibo 3.1 percent, sixth Oktovina Woromboni 1.3 percent, seventh Albert Kayame 1.1 percent, and has not voted as much as 20.7 percent.

Togu revealed that public satisfaction with Mesak Magai as the incumbent of the Nabire Regent only reached 35.2 percent, 60.7 percent were dissatisfied, and 4.1 percent did not answer.

"This figure shows a very low number and reflects the lack of public appreciation for its performance while serving as Regent of Nabire," said Togu.

Togu explained that the level of public satisfaction or known as the job approval rating' has enormous electoral predictive power for the Incumbent Regent. The survey results found that there were various factors that influenced people's choices in this election, especially the performance and track record of candidates.

As for the results of the electability level survey for candidates for the 2024 Nabire Pilkada Regent, continued Togu, it did not show much change if only with a simulation of 4 names for prospective candidates.

"The highest electability rate is still held by Mercy Kegou at 34.7 percent. Meanwhile, Mesak Magai 25.3 percent, Hugo Martinus Karuba 17.8 percent, Ismail Djamaludin 9.1 percent, and those who did not vote and answered as much as 13.1 percent," said Togu.

Meanwhile, if a head-to-head simulation is carried out between Mercy Kegou versus Mesak Magai, the survey results show Mercy's electability rate at 52.6 percent. Meanwhile, Mesak Magai was at 30.1 percent and did not vote 17.3, percent.

"Meanwhile, if the Head to Head was simulated between Mercy Kegou and Hugo Martinus Karuba, the result was that Mercy Kegou was chosen at 60.6 percent and Hugo Martinus Karuba was chosen at 26.8 percent and did not vote 12.6 percent," explained Togu.

The LKPI survey was conducted on 23 July - 1 August 2024 online through Telkomsel Survey data collection. The survey sample includes 1,400 respondents who have the right to vote and are spread across four electoral districts (Dapil).

To be precise, it consists of 26 districts/districts proportionally based on data on the population of the permanent voter list for the 2024 General Election in Nabire Regency.

Sampling uses a non-probability sampling method, with a margin of error of around -/+ 2.6 b percent at a 95 percent confidence level.