Ukraine Defenses Increasing, Russia Lacks of Troops and Ammunition for Full-blown Offensive

Ukrainian soldiers operate M777's Howitzer artillery from the US on the battlefield. (Wikimedia Commons/Mil.gov.ua)

JAKARTA - Russia lacks the ammunition and troops to launch a major offensive in Ukraine, as Kyiv has been able to improve its defenses, a senior NATO official said on Tuesday.

Briefing reporters, the official said Russia has suffered "huge" losses on the battlefield because it has tried to exploit small territorial gains but lacks the men and ammunition to launch a large-scale offensive.

"What they have to do is order undermanned and inexperienced units to move into areas to achieve unrealistic objectives," the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

"To sustain a real offensive operation, we think Russia has to secure significant supplies of ammunition from countries other than what it has already gotten from Iran and North Korea," the official said.

"And Vladimir Putin has to order a new large-scale mobilization," he said.

On the other hand, the official said Ukraine's defenses have improved, even though they also lack troops.

"We have seen Ukraine's defenses improve significantly," the official said.

Kyiv’s forces have been at a disadvantage on the battlefield for months, as Moscow’s forces maintain heavy offensive pressure and advance slowly in eastern Ukraine.

He estimated that Russia would be able to sustain its war economy for another three to four years.

The official said it would “take some time” before Ukraine musters the ammunition and personnel it needs to launch a new large-scale offensive.

“We see them improving day by day,” he added.

He also said recent arson attacks, assassination plots and sabotage in Europe were part of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s covert campaign to undermine public support for Ukraine.

Western and Ukrainian officials say Iran supplies suicide drones to Russia, a charge Tehran denies, while North Korea has provided artillery shells and missiles to Moscow. Both countries deny such deliveries have taken place.

He also highlighted what he said was China’s continued provision of “critical support equipment” to Russia’s drones, missiles, and defense industry.

The official said President Putin “still thinks time is on his side” and is willing to take “a very surprising number of military casualties.”

Russia is recruiting about 30,000 soldiers a month, allowing it to withstand heavy losses on the battlefield, he said.