Alvara Survey Calls Presidential Election 2 Rounds, Ganjar-Prabowo Most Chance

Anies Baswedan, Prabowo Subianto, and Ganjar Prabowo in the inaugural debate of the 2024 presidential election at the KPU Building, Jakarta, Tuesday 12 December 2023. (Between-Galih Pradipta)

JAKARTA - The results of a recent survey released by the Alvara Research Center with the Indonesian Higher Education Alumni Forum (FATTI) stated that the electability of three candidate pairs (paslon) in the 2024 presidential election has not exceeded 50 percent. Thus, the 2024 presidential election has the potential to take place in two rounds.

"Most likely two rounds of elections will take place. And, the biggest opportunities that enter the second round are Prabowo Gibran and Ganjar Mahfud," said FAPTI Secretary General Eko Nugroho in a statement Thursday, December 28.

In this survey, candidate pair electability number 2 Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka excels above candidate pair number 3 Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD, and candidate pair number 1 Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar.

Prabowo-Gibran's electability rate is 46 percent, Ganjar-Mahfud MD at 26.4 percent, followed by Anies-Muhaimin 21.3 percent. Meanwhile, 6.3 percent of respondents did not answer or did not know.

"There are quite a few Jokowi Voters in 2019 who chose the Ganjar Pranowo 'Mahfud MD pair, while Prabowo-Sandi voters will still choose Prabowo who is paired with Gibran in 2024," continued the representative of the Chairman of FAPTI, Andre Rahadian.

The survey, which involved 1,262 respondents nationally, was dominated by generation Z and millennials of 74.9 percent, with a percentage of 56.2 percent being urban residents.

However, when the thickening of 4,000 special respondents in Java was carried out, the results of the electability of the two top candidate pairs were marked by Ganjar 'Mahfud MD at 47 percent. Meanwhile, Prabowo-Gibran was 32.8 percent.

Unlike in East Java, Prabowo-Gibran's electability rate again leads 45.8 percent, followed by Ganjar 'Mahfud 30.9 percent.

Only in DKI Jakarta, Anies-Muhaimin's electability shows his spurs with 34.1 percent, followed by Ganjar-Mahfud 31.4 percent.

In this survey, when respondents were asked what should be the focus of the new government as many as 48.3 percent of respondents chose to prioritize economic issues, especially regarding job openness, increasing income or salary, and stabilizing prices for the people.

While on top of mind and open surveys, this Alvara and FAPTI survey stated that awareness of the highest political party (parpol) at the top was occupied by the Golkar Party at 92.9 percent followed by PDI Perjuangan at 92.6 percent and Gerindra at 89.9 percent.

"The PDI-P's voice is quite high in the Java and Maluku regions of Papua, while Gerindra has the highest electability in Sumatra, Bali, Nusa Tenggara and Kalimantan, and Nasdem is higher in Sulawesi," he said.