The Cause Of Ganjar's Electability Drops According To Several Observers

The cause of Ganjar Anjlok's (ANTARA) electability

YOGYAKARTA - Based on a survey by the latest version of the Indonesia Political Opinion (IPO) and LSI Denny JA, the electability of the Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD pair has declined. Even overtaken by the pair Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar. So, what is the cause of Ganjar's electability plummeting?

LSI Denny JA recorded the period in November 2023 electability of the Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka 40.3 percent, followed by Ganjar-Mahfud 28.6 percent and the AMIN pair 20.3 percent.

This survey was conducted on November 6-13, 2023, on 1,200 respondents with multistage random sampling procedures and a margin of error of approximately 2.9 percent.

Sourced from the LSI Denny JA survey, Prabowo-Gibran's electability continues to increase. Prabowo-Gibran, for example in September, has 39.3 percent electability. After that it rose to 40.3 percent this month.

Meanwhile, Ganjar-Mahfud had 36.9 percent electability in September. Then his electability fell freely to 28.6 percent at this time.

On the other hand, Anies-Cak Imin's companion was approximately 8.8 percent of the results of the LSI Denny JA survey 2 months ago. Currently, their electability has increased to 20.3 percent.

The results of a survey conducted by the IPO in November 2023 also showed that the Prabowo-Gibran pair were in the top position with an electability of 36.2 percent.

Meanwhile, Anies' personal electability when juxtaposed with Muhaimin Iskandar is 34.1 percent. On the other hand, Ganjar's personal side, which was juxtaposed with Mahfud, became 27.1 percent.

The IPO conducted this survey on 10-17 November 2023 against 1,400 respondents with multistage random sampling procedures and a margin of error of approximately 2.50 percent with a confidence level of 95 percent.

1. Considered Often Unjuk Achievements Rather Than Criticism Of Yourself

Contacted separately, a political observer from Andalas University, Asrinaldi, said that Ganjar-Mahfud's electability in the survey could not be separated from the various statements submitted to the public.

Especially, there is criticism of the government. Because, it is undeniable that PDIP is still part of the government.

"Except PDIP said that apart from Jokowi or Jokowi said he left PDIP, as long as they were still part of the PDIP, people would view this as criticism of themselves which actually opened up what they were doing," said Asrinaldi.

Asrinaldi said that one of the methods that TPN Ganjar-Mahfud can do to increase the couple's electability is to show their achievements.

For example, Ganjar's achievements throughout his tenure as Governor of Central Java and Mahfud MD as Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal and Security Affairs.

"For me, it is also ideal to blow up the achievements of the presidential and vice-presidential candidates, that's all that has been blown up, it will build a positive perception," said Asrinaldi.

2. Frequent Criticism of Jokowi

IPO Executive Director, Dedi Kurnia Syah said there are at least 2 prominent aspects that influence the decline in Ganjar-Mahfud's electability.

First, the level of public satisfaction with the government of President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) is still quite large or almost reaching 50 percent.

In the midst of this high level of satisfaction, Ganjar as a presidential candidate often criticizes the government's performance. Most recently, Ganjar gave a 5th score on law enforcement performance during the Jokowi administration.

"Ganjar even criticized me for being counter-productive when compared to loyalists or Ganjar voters who are mostly Jokowi loyalists," said Dedi when contacted by reporters, Tuesday (21/11) night.

"So I think such an opinion war will allow Ganjar Pranowo voters after that to prefer Jokowi and that has been confirmed to move to Prabowo Subianto," he continued.

3. PDI Domination Decreases

Meanwhile, the next aspect is influenced by the decline in PDIP dominance in several areas, which have been known as the basis of the party's vote bearing the bull symbol.

Dedi gave an example of these areas, including Central Java, Bali, Lampung, to West Kalimantan. Sourced from a survey, he said, the Ganjar-Mahfud pair actually still occupies the top position, but is no longer dominant.

"Still the highest but not dominant, let alone not hold the 60 percent figure in Central Java, this shows that internal problems are also, PDIP is not solid to Ganjar Pranowo," he said.

"I think those 2 things are possible to be the reason why Ganjar has shrunk in the period from June to November," he continued.

Dedi commented that Ganjar was obliged to replace his political communication pattern and not attack or criticize the government. Moreover, Mahfud MD, who is his companion, is currently still a member of the government as Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal and Security Affairs.

"It should not touch things that are critical of the government, it should not be like gaining water or tapping water but instead splashing your own face, that's about it," he said.

For him, PDIP or the National Winning Team (TPN) Ganjar-Mahfud can provide direction to the presidential candidate he carries in the aftermath of the criticism that has been conveyed so far.

"Calling Ganjar Pranowo ordered Ganjar Pranowo to only be allowed to talk about something that came out of the TPN, meaning that it was the result of consensus, the results of studies and others, don't let Ganjar Pranowo talk without any reference from the team it would make it difficult for them," said Dedi.

Regarding this matter, the leadership of the PDIP DPP as well as the Ganjar-Mahfud TPN Advisory Council, Puan Maharani, said that the group would evaluate several narratives of Ganjar's criticism to the government in recent times.

"This will be an evaluation for us PDIP to be able to see well and clearly, whether then it must be evaluated or not. This means that it is left behind with the substance that will be conveyed by Pak Ganjar," said Puan.

Puan said the criticisms made were purely at Ganjar's initiative regarding an issue that must be conveyed. However, he said, Ganjar criticized it because he did have data.

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