The Trend of Increasing COVID-19 Cases in Indonesia Needs to be Watched Out For

Illustration of community activities using masks (ANTARA)

JAKARTA - Pulmonology expert at the Faculty of Medicine, University of Indonesia, Prof. Tjandra Yoga Aditama, said that the trend of increasing the rate of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia and a number of other countries still needs to be watched out for, even though it is falling globally.

"It is clear that we need to be vigilant, but at the same time scientific analysis needs to be carried out in depth. Don't be quick to draw conclusions based on inadequate data and information," said Tjandra when confirmed in Jakarta, Antara, Thursday, December 7.

The number of COVID-19 cases globally is showing a decline, according to the publication of the World Health Organization (WHO) as of the end of November 2023.

The publication compared case rate data from October 28 to November 19, 2023 with the previous 28 days, which showed a 13 percent decrease in cases and a 72 percent decrease in the death rate.

At the same time, he said, there was an increase in COVID-19 cases in Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia in the last week.

WHO, he said, had stated that the decline in the number of global COVID-19 cases should not be interpreted as COVID-19 cases having completely decreased in the world. The causes of the decline in COVID-19 cases still need to be analyzed in depth.

"The analysis includes increased immunity due to natural infection or vaccination, whether health services have improved in general, or of course it could also be due to the recording system," he said.

The former WHO Southeast Asia Director of Infectious Diseases said the specific causes of the increase in cases in Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore also needed to be analyzed.

There are a number of combinations of several factors that influence the rate of COVID-19 cases, namely a decrease in immunity because the natural transmission situation is low or vaccination has been carried out for a long time.

"Especially if the 'booster' coverage is incomplete or low, like in our country," he said.

Apart from that, said Tjandra, in general health services are facing a lot of problems with lung and respiratory tract infections, due to the rainy season.

"Of course it could also be because of the recording system, for example because of the news in Singapore, so now more people are checking for COVID-19 and others, or it could also be because the numbers are rising," he said.

The Ministry of Health reported that daily COVID-19 cases in Indonesia increased by 35-40 cases as of December 6 2023, with the number of patients being treated in hospital recorded at 60-131 people.

This situation has led to a current hospital occupancy rate of 0.06 percent and a death rate of 0-3 cases per day.

This increase in cases is dominated by the Omicron XBB 1.5 subvariant which is also the cause of the wave of COVID-19 infections in Europe and the United States. In addition, subvariants EG2 and EG5 were also detected. Even though there is an increase, cases are still much lower than during the pandemic, which reached 50,000-400,000 cases per week.