After The Kompas Research And Development, The SMRC Survey Released The Electability Of Ganjar Pranowo Who Returned To Rebound

Ganjar Pranowo (Photo via Central Java Provincial Government)

JAKARTA - Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) released the results of a survey related to the electability of a presidential candidate in the 2024 presidential election. As a result, Ganjar Pranowo's electability rebounded, ahead of Prabowo Subianto, who had won the championship in the previous survey.

SMRC Research Director Deni Irvani said that in the simulation of closed choice of three names, Ganjar received 35.9 percent support, Prabowo 33.6 percent, and Anies Baswedan in third place with 20.4 percent support.

"In the simulation of closed choice of three names, Ganjar received 35.9 percent support, statistically in balance with Prabowo 33.6 percent (noise difference less than 2x moe). Anies is in third place with 20.4 percent support. Those who don't know 10.1 percent," Deni said in an official release broadcast virtually, Wednesday, August 23.

In the last two years, from May 2021 to August 2023, support for Ganjar rose from 25.5 percent to 35.9 percent, while Prabowo was stagnant from 34.1 percent to 33.6 percent.

"And Anies tends to drop from 23.5 percent to 20.4 percent," he said.

Furthermore, Deni said support for Ganjar also strengthened after being declared as a presidential candidate from 33.2 percent in early April 2023 to 39.2 percent in early May 2023, an increase of 6 percent, but fell again until the survey in mid-July 2023 to 30.8 percent.

"Then (Ganjar) strengthened again in the last survey in early August to 35.9 percent," said Deni.

Meanwhile, Prabowo strengthened from 31.5 percent in early April 2023 to 37.8 percent in mid-July 2023.

"Then (Prabowo) was slightly corrected in the survey in early August to 33.6 percent," he said.

It is known, the SMRC survey was held nationally on July 31-11 August 2023. The survey population is all Indonesian citizens who have the right to vote in the general election, namely those who are 17 years old or older, or are married when the survey is conducted.

The base sample of 3,710 respondents was chosen randomly (strateted multistage random sampling) from the population with a proportional amount. The oversample is carried out in small provinces so that the number of samples for each province is at least 100 respondents.

The total final sample is 5,000 respondents. Response rate (respondents who can be interviewed validly) is 4,260 or 85 percent. A total of 4,260 respondents were analyzed. The survey margin of error with the number of samples nationally is estimated to be +/- 1,65 percent at a 95 percent confidence level, the assumption of simple random sampling.

The selected respondents were interviewed face-to-face by interviewers who had been trained. Quality control of the interview results was conducted randomly by 20 percent of the total sample by supervisors by returning to the selected respondents (spot check). In quality control, no significant errors were found.