Polmatrix Survey: Prabowo Unggungli Ganjar In Simulation Head To Head

Prabowo Subianto (left) shook hands with Ganjar Pranowo (right) after being a public conversation speaker at the 2023 Learning event at the Bloc Post, Jakarta, Saturday (29/7/2023)/ANTARA PHOTO/Reno Esnir/hp.

JAKARTA - The results of the Indonesian Polmatrix Survey revealed that Gerindra Chairman Prabowo Subianto managed to excel in the head-to-head simulation against PDIP presidential candidate Ganjar Pranowo with an electability of 52.3 percent.

Executive Director of Polmatrix Indonesia Dendik Rulianto said Jokowi's endorsement of Prabowo proved effective in boosting Prabowo Subianto's electability. Meanwhile, Ganjar's electability was left behind by a difference of almost 20 percent, namely 34.0 percent, and the remaining 13.7 percent said they did not know / did not answer.

"In the head-to-head simulation of two presidential candidates, Prabowo is ahead of Ganjar by almost 20 percent," said Dendik as quoted by ANTARA, Tuesday, August 1.

Ganjar received an additional 10 percent of the names of other presidential candidates, while Prabowo won an overflow of 23 percent of support. Likewise in the simulation of three presidential candidates, where Prabowo excels with an electability of 40.7 percent and Ganjar 33.2 percent, while Anies is exposed to 16.8 percent, and the remaining 9.3 percent state they don't know/don't answer.

According to Dendik, the contestation map for the presidential election is now increasingly dominated by the two top names, namely Prabowo and Ganjar. Prabowo and Ganjar are the targets of voter migration that supports the names of other presidential candidates in the simulation of many names.

Prabowo received the largest amount of support, followed by Ganja. Meanwhile, Anies could hardly withdraw support, only an increase of 2 percent. This is because the vision of change echoed by Anies is practically unacceptable to the majority of voters.

This is further exacerbated by the decline in Anies' electability in the simulation of many names, making the chance of running for president smaller.

"The Coalition for Change has not made an official joint declaration, and continues to procrastinate time to announce the vice president," he said.

In fact, the coalition that carries Anies is threatened with breaking if the vice presidential candidate that is decided is not approved by each party. NasDem and Democrats often argue about the names of the vice presidents, including with Anies himself when adding criteria for potential assistants.

Meanwhile, when congested in two names, most of the votes of support for Anies flowed to Prabowo, where the additional electability reached 11 percent. Ganjar barely got additional, and the rest may not answer.

Jokowi's knowledge strategy, which now leads to support for Prabowo, has an electoral effect, with the opportunity to become the largest goal of migration of voters of other presidential candidates," said Dendik.

Jokowi's support for Prabowo also managed to lock Anies' position, so that it could not be an alternative choice for the public, as evidenced by the lack of migration of other presidential candidates," he added.

Jokowi's attitude that does not want to be silent on his feet in the upcoming presidential election is based on the interests of ensuring that the next national leader will continue the program that has been laid out in two terms of office.

From a sustainability perspective, continued Dendik, Anies' idea of changing is a threat and has the potential to make ongoing programs stalled. One of them is the delay in Anies' communication with the center hampering development progress.

Prabowo is considered more strategic to be able to realize Jokowi's interests in ensuring sustainability than Ganjar. Then, Prabowo's voter base intersects with Anies, where Prabowo has twice been Jokowi's rival and is in the opposition camp.

Ganjar, who was promoted by the PDIP, has limited support for Jokowi's strong voters, because he cannot increase support more broadly, let alone erode Anies' voter base.

"Ganjar attracts less migration of other presidential candidates and supporters of Anies," Dendik concluded.

The Indonesian Polmatrix Survey was conducted from 15 to 21 July 2023 to 2,000 respondents representing 34 provinces. The survey method is multistage random sampling with a margin of error survey of up to 2.2 percent and at a 95 percent confidence level.